This article explores who is likely to benefit from Internet propaganda in civil wars. It argues that the global reach of the Internet, its lack of regulation and its filtering tools are more likely to help transnational rebel groups with external support and radical aims than local groups with home-grown support and moderate aims. The paper then introduces a new dataset on rebel propaganda that includes every available piece of public, downloadable Internet communication produced by every major rebel group in the Iraqi civil war between January 2011 and December 2015. A preliminary analysis of group-level Internet communication during the war revealed a number of striking patterns. Internet propaganda was not equally used by all rebel groups in Iraq during this time period. Groups with potentially larger international backing and low levels of local support were much more likely to produce Internet propaganda than those with strong in-country support. Ideologically extreme groups were also more likely to generate a higher volume of Internet propaganda than other types of groups. Finally, rebel groups that were new to a war tended to rely more heavily on Internet propaganda than more well-established groups. The article concludes by discussing the potential implications this new media environment could have for civil wars moving forward.

中文翻译：

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谁在内战中使用互联网宣传，为什么？


本文探讨了谁有可能从内战中的互联网宣传中受益。它认为，互联网的全球覆盖、缺乏监管和过滤工具更有可能帮助具有外部支持和激进目标的跨国叛乱团体，而不是拥有本土支持和温和目标的本地团体。然后，本文介绍了一个关于叛军宣传的新数据集，其中包括 2011 年 1 月至 2015 年 12 月期间伊拉克内战中每个主要叛乱组织制作的所有可用的公开、可下载的互联网通信。对战争期间群体层面的互联网通信的初步分析揭示了许多引人注目的模式。在此期间，伊拉克的所有叛乱组织并未平等地使用互联网宣传。与那些拥有强大国内支持的团体相比，具有较大国际支持和较低本地支持的团体更有可能进行互联网宣传。意识形态极端的团体也比其他类型的团体更有可能产生更多的互联网宣传。最后，与更成熟的团体相比，刚参加战争的叛乱团体往往更依赖互联网宣传。文章最后讨论了这种新的媒体环境可能对未来的内战产生的潜在影响。