Ambient air quality across the southeastern US has improved substantially in recent decades. However, emissions from prescribed burns remain high, which may pose a substantial health threat. We employed a multistage modeling framework to estimate year-round, long-term effects of prescribed burns on air quality and premature deaths. The framework integrates a chemical transport model with a data-fusion approach to estimate 24-h average PM_2.5 and maximum daily 8-h averaged O₃ (MDA8-O₃) concentrations attributable to prescribed burns for the period 2013–2020. The Global Exposure Mortality Model and a log-linear exposure–response function were used to estimate the premature deaths ascribed to long-term prescribed burn PM_2.5 and MDA8-O₃ exposure in ten southeastern states. Our results indicate that prescribed burns contributed on annual average 0.59 ± 0.20 µg/m³ of PM_2.5 (∼10 % of ambient PM_2.5) over the ten southeastern states during the study period. On average around 15 % of the state-level ambient PM_2.5 concentrations were contributed by prescribed burns in Alabama (0.90 ± 0.15 µg/m³), Florida (0.65 ± 0.19 µg/m³), Georgia (0.91 ± 0.19 µg/m³), Mississippi (0.65 ± 0.10 µg/m³) and South Carolina (0.65 ± 0.09 µg/m³). In the extensive burning season (January–April), daily average contributions to ambient PM_2.5 increased up to 22 % in those states. A large part of Alabama and Georgia experiences ≥3.5 µg/m³ prescribed burn PM_2.5 over 30 days/year. Additionally, prescribed burns are responsible for an average increase of 0.32 ± 0.12 ppb of MDA8-O₃ (0.8 % of ambient MDA8-O₃) over the ten southeastern states. The combined effect of prescribed burn PM_2.5 exposure, population growth, and increase of baseline mortality over time resulted in a total of 20,416 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 16,562–24,174) excess non-accidental premature deaths in the ten southeastern states, with 25 % of these deaths in Georgia. Prescribed burn MDA8-O₃ was responsible for an additional 1,332 (95 % CI: 858–1,803) premature deaths in the ten southeastern states. These findings indicate significant impacts from prescribed burns, suggesting potential benefits of enhanced forest management strategies.

中文翻译：

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2013 年至 2020 年美国东南部人口暴露于 PM2.5 和 O3 污染的计划烧伤相关增加


近几十年来，美国东南部的环境空气质量有了显著改善。然而，计划烧伤的排放量仍然很高，这可能会对健康构成重大威胁。我们采用多阶段建模框架来估计计划烧伤对空气质量和过早死亡的全年长期影响。该框架将化学运输模型与数据融合方法相结合，以估计 2013-2020 年期间因计划烧伤引起的 24 小时平均 PM_2.5 和最大每日 8 小时平均 O₃ （MDA8-O₃） 浓度。全球暴露死亡率模型和对数线性暴露-响应函数用于估计东南部 10 个州因长期计划烧伤 PM_2.5 和 MDA8-O₃ 暴露而导致的过早死亡。我们的结果表明，在研究期间，在东南部十个州，计划烧伤对 PM_2.5 的年平均贡献为 0.59 ± 0.20 μg/^{m 3}（环境 PM_2.5 的 ∼ 10%）。平均而言，约15%的州级环境_PM2.5浓度是由阿拉巴马州（0.90±0.15μg/m³）、佛罗里达州（0.65±0.19μg/m³）、佐治亚州（0.91 ± 0.19 μg/m³）、密西西比州（0.65 ± 0.10 μg/m³）和南卡罗来纳州（0.65 ± 0.09 μg/m³）造成的。在大面积燃烧季节（1 月至 4 月），这些州对环境 PM_2.5 的日平均贡献增加了 22%。阿拉巴马州和佐治亚州的大部分地区在每年 30 天内经历 ≥3.5 μg/m³ 的计划烧伤 PM_2.5。此外，计划烧伤导致 MDA8-O₃ 的平均增加 0.32 ± 0.12 ppb （0.8 % 的环境 MDA8-O₃） 在东南部十个州。计划烧伤 PM_2.5 暴露、人口增长和基线死亡率随时间增加的综合影响导致东南部十个州共有 20,416 例（95 % 置信区间 （CI）：16,562-24,174）超额非意外过早死亡，其中 25% 的死亡发生在佐治亚州。在东南部十个州，计划烧伤 MDA8-O₃ 导致另外 1,332 例 （95 % CI： 858-1,803） 过早死亡。这些发现表明计划烧毁的重大影响，表明加强森林管理策略的潜在好处。