Climate-change-induced shifts in the timing of leaf emergence during spring have been widely documented and have important ecological consequences. However, mechanistic knowledge regarding what controls the timing of spring leaf emergence is incomplete. Field-based studies under natural conditions suggest that climate-warming-induced decreases in cold temperature accumulation (chilling) have expanded the dormancy duration or reduced the sensitivity of plants to warming temperatures (thermal forcing) during spring, thereby slowing the rate at which the timing of leaf emergence is shifting earlier in response to ongoing climate change. However, recent studies have argued that the apparent reductions in temperature sensitivity may arise from artefacts in the way that temperature sensitivity is calculated, while other studies based on statistical and mechanistic models specifically designed to quantify the role of chilling have shown conflicting results.

中文翻译：

---

热强迫与冷却？春季物候模型中温度控制的错误


气候变化引起的春季叶片出现时间的变化已被广泛记录，并具有重要的生态后果。然而，关于什么控制春叶出现时间的机械知识是不完整的。自然条件下的田间研究表明，气候变暖引起的低温积累（寒冷）减少延长了休眠时间或降低了植物在春季对变暖温度的敏感性（热强迫），从而减缓了叶片出现时间提前变化的速度，以响应持续的气候变化。然而，最近的研究认为，温度敏感性的明显降低可能是由计算温度敏感性方式的人工制品引起的，而其他基于专门设计用于量化冷却作用的统计和机理模型的研究则显示出相互矛盾的结果。