Earthquake interaction across multiple time scales can reveal complex stress evolution and rupture patterns. Here, we investigate the role of static stress change in the 2023 Mw 7.8 and 7.6 earthquake doublet along the East Anatolian Fault (EAF), using simulations of 19 historical earthquakes (M ≥ 6.1) and the 2023 earthquake doublet from 1822 to 2023. Focusing on six cascading sub-events during the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake doublet, we reveal how one sub-event's stress alteration can impact the emergence and rupture of subsequent sub-events. Our analysis unveils that the 2023 Mw 7.8 earthquake was delayed due to stress shadow effects from historical events, while the 2023 Mw 7.6 earthquake was accelerated as a result of stress increases from historical events and ultimately triggered by the 2023 Mw 7.8 earthquake. This study underscores the importance of grasping earthquake preparation, rupture initiation, propagation, and termination in the context of intricate fault systems worldwide. Based on these results, we draw attention to increased seismic hazards in the Elazig-Bingol seismic gap of the EAF and the northern section of the Dead Sea Fault (DSF), necessitating increased monitoring and preparedness efforts.

中文翻译：

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解码 2023 年土耳其-叙利亚地震双峰的应力模式


跨多个时间尺度的地震相互作用可以揭示复杂的应力演变和破裂模式。在这里，我们使用 19 次历史地震 （M ≥ 6.1） 和 1822 年至 2023 年地震双峰的模拟，研究了静应力变化在 2023 年 Mw 7.8 和 7.6 地震沿东安纳托利亚断层 （EAF） 双峰中的作用。我们专注于 2023 年 Kahramanmaraş 地震双峰期间的六个级联子事件，揭示了一个子事件的应力变化如何影响后续子事件的出现和破裂。我们的分析显示，2023 年 Mw 7.8 地震是由于历史事件的应力阴影效应而推迟的，而 2023 年 Mw 7.6 地震是由于历史事件的应力增加而加速的，并最终由 2023 年 Mw 7.8 地震触发。这项研究强调了在全球错综复杂的断层系统背景下掌握地震准备、破裂起始、传播和终止的重要性。基于这些结果，我们提请注意电弧炉的 Elazig-Bingol 地震间隙和死海断层 （DSF） 北段的地震灾害增加，因此需要加强监测和准备工作。