Can armed conflict amplify the societal impacts and humanitarian consequences of natural hazards? Given that these hazards affect millions of people worldwide and that climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, it is paramount that we advance our understanding of what makes societies vulnerable to these hazards. Existing research has focused mainly on political violence as a consequence of natural hazard-related disasters but has neglected that conflict can also be an underlying factor that shapes the impact of these events. Consequently, we know little about whether and how exposure to violent armed conflict increases vulnerability to natural hazards. This study argues that the local dynamics of conflict can have a significant effect on vulnerability and empirically investigates how periods of high-intensity conflict can affect the humanitarian consequences of natural hazards in the context of tropical cyclones in the Philippines. By combining data on physical storm exposure with highly detailed subnational data on disaster fatalities and conflict events, the empirical analysis allows the identification of the independent effect of conflict on hazard impacts. Results show that local periods of high-intensity conflict significantly increase the humanitarian consequences of natural hazards. These results have important implications for research investigating the impacts of disasters on peace and conflict, as they show that the consequences of natural disasters depend fundamentally on pre-existing conflict dynamics.

中文翻译：

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当冲突变成灾难时：了解武装冲突动态在自然灾害中的作用


武装冲突能否放大自然灾害的社会影响和人道后果？鉴于这些灾害影响着全球数百万人，而且气候变化预计将增加极端天气事件的频率和强度，因此我们必须进一步了解是什么使社会容易受到这些灾害的影响。现有的研究主要集中在自然灾害相关灾害导致的政治暴力上，但忽略了冲突也可能是影响这些事件影响的潜在因素。因此，我们对暴露于暴力武装冲突是否以及如何增加对自然灾害的脆弱性知之甚少。本研究认为，冲突的局部动态会对脆弱性产生重大影响，并实证研究了在菲律宾热带气旋背景下，高强度冲突时期如何影响自然灾害的人道主义后果。通过将物理风暴暴露数据与有关灾害死亡和冲突事件的高度详细的地方数据相结合，实证分析可以确定冲突对灾害影响的独立影响。结果表明，局部高强度冲突时期显著增加了自然灾害的人道后果。这些结果对调查灾害对和平与冲突影响的研究具有重要意义，因为它们表明自然灾害的后果从根本上取决于先前存在的冲突动态。