Balancing land development and ecological protection poses significant challenges for sustainable development in arid and semi‐arid regions like Inner Mongolia. This study uses the integrated valuation of ecosystem services (ESs) trade‐offs model and patch‐generated land‐use simulation model to analyze the impacts of land‐use/cover (LULC) changes on ESs from 2005 to 2020 and simulate scenarios for 2035. The results show that (1) ecological governance efforts improved the comprehensive ecological index (CEI), habitat quality, and soil conservation capacity but led to a decrease in the annual water yield (AWY) in the eastern region. Additionally, the conversion of grassland and forest land to construction land and farmland caused slight declines in carbon sequestration and increased nitrogen export. (2) The external driving factors of different ESs vary, and the internal relationships within ESs have also changed. Notably, changes in LULC transformed the synergy between AWY and habitat quality into a trade‐off relationship after 2010 due to increased forest and grassland. (3) Among the five land‐use scenarios, the comprehensive development scenario combined with zonal management strategies can achieve the sustainable development goals of economic growth, ecological protection, and food security. This study clarifies the internal and external factors affecting ESs in Inner Mongolia and provides a scientific basis for future LULC management and ecological governance policies. It fills a gap in the spatiotemporal simulation of ESs under multiple scenarios in this region. These findings offer valuable references for promoting sustainable development in similar arid and semi‐arid regions, highlighting the importance of integrating multi‐objective strategies and adaptive management practices to balance ecological and economic objectives.

中文翻译：

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内蒙古土地利用与生态系统服务相互作用评价与多情景模拟


平衡土地开发和生态保护对内蒙古等干旱半干旱地区的可持续发展构成了重大挑战。本研究使用生态系统服务 （ES） 权衡模型和补丁生成的土地利用模拟模型的综合估值来分析 2005 年至 2020 年土地利用/覆盖 （LULC） 变化对 ES 的影响，并模拟 2035 年的情景。结果表明：（1）生态治理工作提高了东部地区综合生态指数（CEI）、生境质量和土壤保持能力，但导致东部地区年产水量（AWY）下降。此外，草原和林地向建设用地和农田的转变导致碳封存略有下降，氮输出增加。（2） 不同 ES 的外部驱动因素不同，ES 内部关系也发生了变化。值得注意的是，由于森林和草原的增加，LULC 的变化在 2010 年后将 AWY 和栖息地质量之间的协同作用转变为一种权衡关系。（3）在5种土地利用情景中，综合发展情景结合分区管理策略可以实现经济增长、生态保护和粮食安全的可持续发展目标。本研究明确了影响内蒙古自治区生态系统环境的内外部因素，为未来 LULC 管理和生态治理政策提供了科学依据。它填补了该区域多个场景下 ES 时空模拟的空白。 这些发现为促进类似干旱和半干旱地区的可持续发展提供了有价值的参考，突出了整合多目标战略和适应性管理实践以平衡生态和经济目标的重要性。