Extreme wintertime cold in the central United States (US) can drive excessive electricity demand and grid failures, with substantial socioeconomic effects. Predicting cold-induced demand surges is relatively understudied, especially on the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale of 2 weeks to 2 months. North American winter weather regimes are atmospheric tools that are based on persistent atmospheric circulation patterns, and have been linked to potential S2S predictability of extreme cold in the central US. We study the relationship between winter weather regimes and daily peak load across 13 balancing authorities in the Southwest Power Pool. Anomalous ridging across Alaska, the West Coast, and Greenland drive increases in demand and extreme demand risk. Conversely, anomalous troughing across the Arctic and North Pacific reduces extreme demand risk. Thus, weather regimes may not only be an important long-lead predictor for North American electricity load, but potentially a useful tool for end users and stakeholders.

美国中部冬季的极端寒冷会导致电力需求过剩和电网故障，从而产生巨大的社会经济影响。预测寒冷引起的需求激增的研究相对不足，尤其是在 2 周到 2 个月的次季到季节性 （S2S） 时间尺度上。北美冬季天气状况是基于持续大气环流模式的大气工具，与美国中部极端寒冷的潜在 S2S 可预测性有关。我们研究了西南电力池中 13 个平衡机构的冬季天气状况与每日峰值负荷之间的关系。阿拉斯加、西海岸和格陵兰岛的异常起垄导致需求增加和极端需求风险。相反，横跨北极和北太平洋的异常槽降低了极端的需求风险。因此，天气状况不仅可能是北美电力负荷的重要长周期预测指标，而且可能是最终用户和利益相关者的有用工具。