Compared with the risks associated with climate warming and extremes, the risks of climate-induced drying to animal species remain understudied. This is particularly true for water-sensitive groups, such as anurans (frogs and toads), whose long-term survival must be considered in the context of both environmental changes and species sensitivity. Here, we mapped global areas where anurans will face increasing water limitations, analysed ecotype sensitivity to water loss and modelled behavioural activity impacts under future climate change scenarios. Predictions indicate that 6.6–33.6% of anuran habitats will become arid like by 2080–2100, with 15.4–36.1% exposed to worsening drought, under an intermediate- and high-emission scenario, respectively. Arid conditions are expected to double water loss rates, and combined drought and warming will double reductions in anuran activity compared with warming impacts alone by 2080–2100. These findings underscore the pervasive synergistic threat of warming and environmental drying to anurans.

与气候变暖和极端事件相关的风险相比，气候引起的干燥对动物物种的风险仍未得到充分研究。对于对水敏感的群体尤其如此，例如 anurans（青蛙和蟾蜍），必须在环境变化和物种敏感性的背景下考虑它们的长期生存。在这里，我们绘制了 anurans 将面临越来越多的水限制的全球区域，分析了生态型对水分流失的敏感性，并模拟了未来气候变化情景下的行为活动影响。预测表明，到 2080 年至 2100 年，6.6-33.6% 的无尾鱼栖息地将变得干旱，在中高排放情景下，分别有 15.4-36.1% 的栖息地面临日益严重的干旱。预计干旱条件将使水分流失率翻倍，到 2080 年至 2100 年，与单独的变暖影响相比，干旱和变暖的结合将使 anuran 活动的减少翻倍。这些发现强调了变暖和环境干燥对 anurans 的普遍协同威胁。