BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the beneficial impact of vaccines. It also highlighted the need for future investments to expedite an equitable vaccine distribution. The 100 Days Mission aims to develop and make available a new vaccine against a future pathogen with pandemic potential within 100 days of that pathogen threat being recognised. We assessed the value of this mission by estimating the impact that it could have had on the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS Using a previously published model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics fitted to excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic, we projected scenarios for three different investment strategies: rapid development and manufacture of a vaccine, increasing manufacturing capacity to eliminate supply constraints, and strengthening health systems to enable faster vaccine roll-outs and global equity. Each scenario was compared against the observed COVID-19 pandemic to estimate the public health and health-economic impacts of each scenario. FINDINGS If countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) as they did historically, the 100 Days Mission could have averted an estimated 8·33 million deaths (95% credible interval [CrI] 7·70-8·68) globally, mostly in lower-middle income countries. This corresponds to a monetary saving of US$14·35 trillion (95% CrI 12·96-17·87) based on the value of statistical life-years saved. Investment in manufacturing and health systems further increases deaths averted to 11·01 million (95% CrI 10·60-11·49). Under an alternative scenario whereby NPIs are lifted earlier on the basis of vaccine coverage, the 100 Days Mission alone could have reduced restrictions by 12 600 days (95% CrI 12 300-13 100) globally while still averting 5·76 million deaths (95% CrI 4·91-6·81). INTERPRETATION Our findings show the value of the 100 Days Mission and how these can be amplified through improvements in manufacturing and health systems equity. However, these investments must be enhanced by prioritising a more equitable global vaccine distribution. FUNDING Schmidt Science Fellowship in partnership with the Rhodes Trust, WHO, UK Medical Research Council, Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations.

中文翻译：

---

疫苗 100 天任务对 COVID-19 的影响：一项数学建模研究。


背景 COVID-19 大流行凸显了疫苗的有益影响。它还强调了未来投资的必要性，以加快公平的疫苗分配。“100 天任务”的目标是在识别出具有大流行潜力的未来病原体后 100 天内开发和提供针对该病原体的新疫苗。我们通过估计它可能对 COVID-19 大流行产生的影响来评估这项任务的价值。方法使用先前发布的 SARS-CoV-2 传播动力学模型，该模型适合 COVID-19 大流行期间的超额死亡率，我们预测了三种不同投资策略的情景：疫苗的快速开发和制造、提高生产能力以消除供应限制，以及加强卫生系统以实现更快的疫苗推出和全球公平。将每种情景与观察到的 COVID-19 大流行进行比较，以估计每种情景对公共卫生和健康经济的影响。调查结果 如果各国像以前一样实施非药物干预 （NPI），那么 100 天任务可以避免全球估计 8·33 万人死亡（95% 可信区间 [CrI] 7·70-8·68），其中大部分在中低收入国家。这相当于节省 14·35 万亿美元（95% CrI 12·96-17·87）的货币节省（基于节省的统计寿命年的价值）。对制造业和卫生系统的投资进一步使避免的死亡人数增加到 11·01 万（95% CrI 10·60-11·49）。在另一种情况下，即根据疫苗覆盖率提前取消 NPI，仅 100 天任务就可以在全球范围内减少 12 600 天（95% CrI 12 300-13 100），同时仍避免 5·76 万人死亡（95% CrI 4·91-6·81）。 解释 我们的研究结果显示了 100 天任务的价值，以及如何通过改善制造业和卫生系统公平性来放大这些价值。然而，必须通过优先考虑更公平的全球疫苗分配来加强这些投资。资助 施密特科学奖学金与罗德信托基金、世界卫生组织、英国医学研究委员会、流行病防范创新联盟合作。