In Kenya, influenza virus circulates year-round, raising questions about optimum strategies for vaccination. Given national interest in introducing influenza vaccination for young children 6–23 months of age, we modeled total influenza-associated illnesses (inclusive of hospitalizations, outpatient illnesses, and non‒medically attended illnesses) averted by multiple potential vaccination strategies: year-round versus seasonal-campaign vaccination, and vaccination starting in April (Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine availability) versus October (Northern Hemisphere availability). We modeled average vaccine effectiveness of 50% and annual vaccination coverage of 60%. In the introduction year, year-round vaccination averted 6,410 total illnesses when introduced in October and 7,202 illnesses when introduced in April, whereas seasonal-campaign vaccination averted 10,236 (October) to 11,612 (April) illnesses. In the year after introduction, both strategies averted comparable numbers of illnesses (10,831–10,868 for year-round, 10,175–11,282 for campaign). Campaign-style vaccination would likely have a greater effect during initial pediatric influenza vaccine introduction in Kenya; however, either strategy could achieve similar longer-term effects.

在肯尼亚，流感病毒全年传播，这引发了人们对最佳疫苗接种策略的质疑。鉴于国家对为 6-23 个月大的幼儿引入流感疫苗接种的兴趣，我们模拟了通过多种潜在疫苗接种策略避免的流感相关疾病总数（包括住院、门诊疾病和非就医疾病）：全年疫苗接种与季节性疫苗接种，以及从 4 月开始的疫苗接种（南半球流感疫苗的可用性）与 10 月（北半球的可用性）。我们对平均疫苗有效性为 50% 和年疫苗接种覆盖率为 60% 进行建模。在引入年份，全年疫苗接种在 10 月引入时避免了 6,410 例疾病，在 4 月引入时避免了 7,202 例疾病，而季节性疫苗接种避免了 10,236 例（10 月）至 11,612 例（4 月）疾病。在引入后的一年里，两种策略都避免了相当数量的疾病（全年 10,831-10,868 人，运动 10,175-11,282 人）。在肯尼亚最初引入儿科流感疫苗期间，运动式疫苗接种可能会产生更大的影响;然而，这两种策略都可以实现类似的长期效果。