One of the major challenges posed by climate change in agriculture is the alteration in cropland suitability. This alteration has serious consequences for food security and economic stability at global, regional, and local scales, especially in smallholder and rainfed agricultural systems like in Ethiopia. A comprehensive understanding of the current state of croplands and future changes under warming temperatures and increasing rainfall uncertainty is critical for national climate adaptation planning. Here, we evaluated cropland suitability (CLS) for four major cereal crops (teff, maize, sorghum, and wheat), under both current and future climates across the rainfed agriculture (RFA) landscapes of Ethiopia. We utilized a novel suitability modelling approach that establishes functional relationships between crop yield, and climatic factors (rainfall, temperature, and solar radiation) and soil factors (texture, pH, and organic carbon). Furthermore, we analyzed the relative influences of the growing season rainfall and temperature on the changes in CLS. The results show that 54 % of the RFA area has a suitability index of 0.6 or higher (moderately to highly suitable) for teff and that 51 %, 63 %, and 29 % of the grid cells are suitable for maize, sorghum, and wheat crops, respectively. The suitable agroecologies of the four crops will likely undergo altitudinal shifts and areal contraction, with magnitudes of the changes depending on the emission scenarios. Under the SSP2–4.5, the suitable areas are projected to decrease by 25 % for teff, 7 % for maize, 10 % for sorghum, and 16 % for wheat in the 2080s. In semi-arid and hyper-humid climates, CLS is sensitive to changes in the growing season rainfall, whereas in low and high elevation regions, it is temperature-sensitive. In light of our results, we argue that adaptation actions tailored to agroecological conditions and topographic locations are vitally necessary to mitigate the long-term impacts of climate change on Ethiopia's rainfed agriculture.

中文翻译：

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埃塞俄比亚雨养农业景观当前和未来农田适合谷物生产的状况


气候变化给农业带来的主要挑战之一是农田适宜性的改变。这种变化对全球、区域和地方层面的粮食安全和经济稳定产生了严重后果，尤其是在埃塞俄比亚等小农和雨养农业系统中。全面了解农田的现状以及在气温变暖和降雨不确定性增加的情况下的未来变化，对于国家气候适应规划至关重要。在这里，我们评估了埃塞俄比亚雨养农业 （RFA） 景观中四种主要谷物作物（苔麸、玉米、高粱和小麦）在当前和未来气候下的农田适宜性 （CLS）。我们采用了一种新的适宜性建模方法，该方法在作物产量与气候因素（降雨、温度和太阳辐射）和土壤因素（质地、pH 值和有机碳）之间建立功能关系。此外，我们分析了生长季降雨量和温度对 CLS 变化的相对影响。结果表明，54% 的 RFA 面积对画眉草的适宜指数为 0.6 或更高（中等到高度适宜），51%、63% 和 29% 的网格单元分别适合玉米、高粱和小麦作物。四种作物的适宜农业生态可能会发生海拔变化和面积收缩，变化的幅度取决于排放情景。根据 SSP2-4.5，预计 2080 年代苔麸适宜面积将减少 25%，玉米减少 7%，高粱减少 10%，小麦减少 16%。在半干旱和超湿润气候中，CLS 对生长季节降雨量的变化敏感，而在低海拔和高海拔地区，它对温度敏感。 根据我们的结果，我们认为，针对农业生态条件和地形位置量身定制的适应行动对于减轻气候变化对埃塞俄比亚雨养农业的长期影响至关重要。