On the labor markets, recent decades were characterized by structural supply‐side reforms in many countries. Following its hawkish reforms from the 2000s, Germany has recently made a dovish turnaround. Conditions in basic income support for unemployed became more generous, combined with a focus on qualification and development. Before, a temporary moratorium on sanctions had been imposed, providing a unique policy shift. We analyze the consequences for job findings, building on large administrative data and a novel control group approach. The moratorium dampened job findings by 4% and the subsequent benefit reform by almost 6%—offsetting half of the positive effect of the 2000s reform. Considering reform objectives, so far, we find no improvement in skill level, job stability, or transitions to training.

中文翻译：

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鸽派的转变：德国的社会福利改革和就业调查结果


在劳动力市场方面，近几十年来，许多国家都进行了结构性供给侧改革。继 2000 年代的鹰派改革之后，德国最近出现了鸽派转变。对失业者的基本收入支持条件变得更加慷慨，同时注重资格和发展。以前，政府曾暂时暂停制裁，这提供了一个独特的政策转变。我们以大型行政数据和新颖的对照组方法为基础，分析了对就业结果的影响。暂停令使就业调查结果减少了 4%，随后的福利改革减少了近 6%，抵消了 2000 年代改革的一半积极影响。考虑到改革目标，到目前为止，我们发现技能水平、工作稳定性或向培训的过渡没有改善。