Understanding the sensitivity of vegetation to climate variability, i.e., the response of vegetation greenness to climate change, is crucial for the management of vulnerable ecosystems. However, this aspect remains inadequately understood for the Tibetan Plateau (TP) with highly fragile ecosystems. By employing a satellite-based vegetation index and three climate variables (temperature, solar radiation, and water availability), we found that 61% of land on TP exhibited an increased vegetation sensitivity to climate in 1982-2015. Under high-level carbon emission scenarios, the sensitivity would continue to increase in future (2015-2100) and get even more sensitive to climate variability than the historical (1950-2014) periods. The southeastern TP emerged as a hotspot for persistently increasing sensitivity both in the past and future. The primary drivers behind these sensitivity trends vary across TP: temperature influences the east and southeast, and water availability (solar radiation) affects the central (west) regions. Our findings suggests that ecosystem services, including ecosystem carbon sequestration, may become more variable and vulnerable on TP in future.

中文翻译：

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青藏高原植被生长对气候变化的敏感性普遍增加


了解植被对气候变化的敏感性，即植被绿化对气候变化的响应，对于管理脆弱的生态系统至关重要。然而，对于生态系统高度脆弱的青藏高原 （TP） 来说，这方面仍然没有得到充分的理解。通过采用基于卫星的植被指数和三个气候变量（温度、太阳辐射和水的可用性），我们发现 1982-2015 年，TP 上 61% 的土地表现出植被对气候的敏感性增加。在高水平碳排放情景下，未来（2015-2100 年）的敏感性将继续增加，并且对气候变率的敏感性将比过去（1950-2014 年）时期更加敏感。TP 东南部在过去和未来都成为持续增加敏感性的热点。这些敏感性趋势背后的主要驱动因素因高原而异：温度影响东部和东南部，而水的可用性（太阳辐射）影响中部（西部）地区。我们的研究结果表明，包括生态系统碳封存在内的生态系统服务在未来可能会变得更加多变和脆弱。