Externalizing behavior and low academic performance present key developmental challenges for school-age children, with the potential for these domains to predict each other over time, leading to worsened outcomes. Yet, previous studies have yielded inconsistent conclusions about the directional pathways between externalizing behaviors and academic performance. Moreover, the moderating factors influencing these predictive pathways remain unclear. To clarify these relations, The current study conducted a meta-analysis on the longitudinal predictive relation between externalizing behaviors and academic performance, incorporating data from 124,695 students without clinically diagnosed behavioral problems or learning disabilities across 70 independent studies. The results revealed a bidirectional predictive relation between externalizing behaviors and academic performance, with comparable effect sizes for both the externalizing behavior to academic performance pathway (r = -.082, p < .001) and the reverse pathway (r = -.076, p < .001). Moderation analysis revealed that inattention-related behavior, shorter time intervals, and fewer white participants strengthen the predictive effect of externalizing behaviors on academic performance. In particular, as child age increases, the moderating effect of time interval is even stronger. For the academic performance leading to externalizing behavior pathway, inattention-related behavior, teacher-reported externalizing behavior, literacy-related performance, and GPA/grades were identified as factors contributing to an augmentation in the longitudinal predictive effect of academic performance on externalizing behaviors. Overall, the negative cycle between externalizing behavior and academic performance may be influenced by various factors, providing targeted recommendations for intervention and prevention.

外化行为和学习成绩低下是学龄儿童面临的主要发展挑战，这些领域有可能随着时间的推移相互预测，从而导致结果恶化。然而，以前的研究对外化行为和学习成绩之间的方向途径得出了不一致的结论。此外，影响这些预测途径的调节因素仍不清楚。为了阐明这些关系，本研究对外化行为与学习成绩之间的纵向预测关系进行了荟萃分析，纳入了 124,695 名没有临床诊断行为问题或学习障碍的学生的数据，涉及 70 项独立研究。结果揭示了外化行为与学业成绩之间存在双向预测关系，外化行为到学业成绩途径 （r = -.082， p < .001） 和反向途径 （r = -.076， p < .001） 的效应量相当。适度分析显示，与注意力不集中相关的行为、较短的时间间隔和较少的白人参与者加强了外化行为对学习成绩的预测作用。特别是，随着儿童年龄的增加，时间间隔的调节作用更加强烈。对于导致外化行为途径的学习成绩，注意力不集中相关行为、教师报告的外化行为、识字相关表现和 GPA/成绩被确定为导致学习成绩对外化行为的纵向预测作用增强的因素。 总体而言，外化行为和学习成绩之间的负面循环可能受到各种因素的影响，为干预和预防提供有针对性的建议。