Low-carbon hydrogen is considered a key component of global energy system decarbonization strategy. The US Inflation Reduction Act incentivizes low-carbon hydrogen production through tax credits that vary based on life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions intensity of hydrogen. Blue hydrogen or hydrogen produced from natural gas coupled with carbon capture and sequestration is one such pathway. Here we develop a geospatial, measurement-informed model to estimate supply-chain specific life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions intensity of blue hydrogen produced with natural gas sourced from the Marcellus and Permian shale basins. We find that blue hydrogen production using Permian gas has a life-cycle emissions intensity of 7.4 kg carbon dioxide equivalent per kg hydrogen (kgCO₂e kg⁻¹ H₂), more than twice that of hydrogen produced using Marcellus gas of 3.3 kgCO₂e kg⁻¹ H₂. Eligibility for tax credits should therefore be based on life-cycle assessments that are supply-chain specific and measurement informed to ensure blue hydrogen projects are truly low carbon.

低碳氢被认为是全球能源系统脱碳战略的关键组成部分。美国《通货膨胀削减法案》通过税收抵免来激励低碳氢气生产，税收抵免根据氢气生命周期的温室气体排放强度而变化。蓝氢或天然气产生的氢气加上碳捕获和封存就是这样一种途径。在这里，我们开发了一个地理空间、测量信息模型，以估计使用来自马塞勒斯和二叠纪页岩盆地的天然气生产的蓝色氢气的供应链特定生命周期温室气体排放强度。我们发现，使用二叠纪气体生产蓝氢的生命周期排放强度为每公斤氢气 7.4 千克二氧化碳当量 （kgCO₂e kg⁻¹ H₂），是使用马塞勒斯气体生产的氢气 3.3 kgCO₂e kg⁻¹ H₂ 的两倍多。因此，税收抵免的资格应基于特定于供应链的生命周期评估和衡量信息，以确保蓝色氢能项目真正实现低碳。