The goal of psychological science is to discover truths about human nature, and the typical form of empirical insights is a simple statement of the form x relates to y. We suggest that such “one-liners” imply much larger x- y relationships than those we typically study. Given the multitude of factors that compete and interact to influence any human outcome, small effect sizes should not surprise us. And yet they do—as evidenced by the persistent and systematic underpowering of research studies in psychological science. We suggest an explanation. Effect size magnification is the tendency to exaggerate the importance of the variable under investigation because of the momentary neglect of others. Although problematic, this attentional focus serves a purpose akin to that of the eye’s fovea. We see a particular x-y relationship with greater acuity when it is the center of our attention. Debiasing remedies are not straightforward, but we recommend (a) recalibrating expectations about the effect sizes we study, (b) proactively exploring moderators and boundary conditions, and (c) periodically toggling our focus from the x variable we happen to study to the non- x variables we do not.

中文翻译：

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Effect Size 放大倍率：没有哪个变量比您正在考虑的变量重要 - 当您正在考虑它时


心理科学的目标是发现关于人性的真相，实证见解的典型形式是 x 与 y 相关的简单陈述。我们认为，这种 “单行” 意味着比我们通常研究的 x- y 关系大得多。鉴于影响任何人类结果的众多因素相互竞争和相互作用，小效应大小不应该让我们感到惊讶。然而，他们确实做到了——心理科学研究的持续和系统性不足证明了这一点。我们建议解释一下。效应大小放大是由于暂时忽视其他变量而夸大所研究变量重要性的趋势。虽然有问题，但这种注意力聚焦的作用类似于眼睛中央凹的目的。当某个特定的 x-y 关系成为我们关注的中心时，我们会更敏锐地看到它。消除偏差的补救措施并不简单，但我们建议 （a） 重新调整对我们研究的效应大小的期望，（b） 主动探索调节因子和边界条件，以及 （c） 定期将我们的注意力从我们碰巧研究的 x 变量切换到我们没有研究的非 x 变量。