The city of Belo Horizonte is a state capital in Brazil with 2.7 million people. The city is remarkable for its stubbornly high and stable levels of domestic violence, and for having implemented very restrictive responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using 260 weeks of data between 2017 and 2021, we used an Interrupted Time Series model to estimate the effect of the restrictive orders and their subsequent relief on reports of domestic violence against women. Results show that restrictive orders had a large and negative immediate impact on reports of domestic violence against women, which was immediately followed by a gradual increase towards their original level. The subsequent relief had no impact, as the series had already resumed its earlier trend by the time restrictions ended. We engage with theory and extant research from middle-income countries to consider why reports declined and why this decline was momentary. Findings contrast with research in high-income countries, which generally found increases in reports of domestic violence after implementing pandemic-related restrictions. However, results align with a single other study in Mexico, a medium-income country similar to Brazil. In light of our data’s context and literature, we considered that reports of domestic violence may have declined not necessarily because of a reduction in actual incidents, but because the restrictions may have exacerbated the isolation of women in vulnerable domestic arrangements, limiting their ability to report their victimization. A stable trend in reports of domestic violence against women, which resumed even after a global pandemic, suggests that current policies have been ineffective and that addressing domestic violence requires a better understanding of related issues and evidence-based strategies. Our study also highlights the importance of considering the consequences of hastily implemented policies during a crisis. While necessary, such policies can inadvertently exacerbate issues such as social isolation.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 限制措施对中等收入国家针对妇女的家庭暴力报告的影响：巴西贝洛奥里藏特的案例


贝洛奥里藏特市是巴西的州首府，拥有 270 万人口。该市以其顽固的高水平和稳定的家庭暴力水平以及对 COVID-19 大流行实施非常严格的应对措施而引人注目。使用 2017 年至 2021 年间 260 周的数据，我们使用中断时间序列模型来估计限制令及其随后的救济对针对女性的家庭暴力报告的影响。结果表明，限制令对针对女性的家庭暴力报告产生了巨大而负面的直接影响，随后逐渐增加到原来的水平。随后的缓解没有影响，因为该系列在限制结束时已经恢复了之前的趋势。我们参与中等收入国家的理论和现有研究，以考虑报告下降的原因以及为什么这种下降是暂时的。研究结果与高收入国家的研究形成鲜明对比，后者通常发现，在实施与大流行相关的限制后，家庭暴力报告有所增加。然而，结果与墨西哥的另一项研究一致，墨西哥是一个类似于巴西的中等收入国家。根据我们数据的背景和文献，我们认为家庭暴力报告下降可能不一定是因为实际事件的减少，而是因为这些限制可能加剧了女性在弱势家庭安排中的孤立，限制了她们报告受害情况的能力。 即使在全球大流行之后，针对妇女的家庭暴力报告的稳定趋势仍在恢复，这表明当前的政策是无效的，解决家庭暴力问题需要更好地了解相关问题和循证策略。我们的研究还强调了在危机期间考虑匆忙实施政策的后果的重要性。虽然有必要，但此类政策可能会无意中加剧社会孤立等问题。