Nature Geoscience ( IF 15.7 ) Pub Date : 2024-10-11 , DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01553-8 Michael P. Byrne, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Jacob Scheff, Ori Adam, Alexis Berg, Michela Biasutti, Simona Bordoni, Aiguo Dai, Ruth Geen, Matthew Henry, Spencer A. Hill, Cathy Hohenegger, Vincent Humphrey, Manoj Joshi, Alexandra G. Konings, Marysa M. Laguë, F. Hugo Lambert, Flavio Lehner, Justin S. Mankin, Kaighin A. McColl, Karen A. McKinnon, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Marianne Pietschnig, Luca Schmidt, Andrew P. Schurer, E. Marian Scott, David Sexton, Steven C. Sherwood, Lucas R. Vargas Zeppetello, Yi Zhang
Climate over land—where humans live and the majority of food is produced—is changing rapidly, driving severe impacts through extreme heat, wildfires, drought and flooding. Our ability to monitor and model this changing climate is being transformed through new observational systems and increasingly complex Earth system models. But fundamental understanding of the processes governing land climate has not kept pace, weakening our ability to interpret and utilize data from these advanced tools. Here we argue that for land-climate science to accelerate forwards, an alternative approach is needed. We advocate a parallel scientific effort, one emphasizing robust theories, that aims to inspire current and future land-climate scientists to better comprehend the processes governing land climate, its variability and extremes and its sensitivity to global warming. Such an effort, we believe, is essential to better understand the risks people face, where they live, in an era of climate change.
中文翻译:
土地气候科学的理论和未来
陆地(人类生活和大部分粮食生产地)的气候正在迅速变化,极端高温、野火、干旱和洪水等造成严重影响。我们监测和模拟这种变化的气候的能力正在通过新的观测系统和日益复杂的地球系统模型来改变。但是,对控制陆地气候的过程的基本理解并没有跟上步伐,削弱了我们解释和利用这些先进工具的数据的能力。在这里,我们认为,要使陆地气候科学加速向前发展,需要一种替代方法。我们倡导一项平行的科学努力,强调稳健的理论,旨在激励当前和未来的陆地气候科学家更好地理解控制陆地气候的过程、其可变性和极端情况以及它对全球变暖的敏感性。我们相信,这样的努力对于更好地了解人们在气候变化时代面临的风险、他们居住的地方至关重要。