Despite global evidence of lake deoxygenation, its duration, timing, and impacts over decadal to centennial timescales remain uncertain. This study introduces a novel model approach using 150 yr of limnological and paleolimnological data to evaluate the anthropogenic impacts on deep oxygen in Lake Geneva. Results highlight an increase in oxygen consumption rates due to cultural eutrophication, initially triggering historical hypoxia, subsequently exacerbated by reduced winter mixing induced by climate change. Simulations of pre‐eutrophication conditions and future climate scenarios define safe operating spaces for the lake to thrive without severe hypoxia risk. Complete winter mixing and O2 recharge once every 3 yr can compensate the oxygen demand in Lake Geneva, even when exceeding 1.5 g O2 m−2 d−1. However, when complete winter mixing becomes less frequent, even consumption rates similar to those observed before eutrophication can cause persistent hypoxia, posing a significant threat to the survival of hypolimnetic aquatic life.

中文翻译：

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揭开人类世日内瓦湖缺氧危机


尽管全球证据表明湖泊脱氧，但其持续时间、时间和对十年到百年时间尺度的影响仍然不确定。本研究引入了一种新的模型方法，使用 150 年的湖沼学和古石学数据来评估人为对日内瓦湖深层氧气的影响。结果突出了由于文化富营养化而导致的耗氧率增加，最初引发了历史缺氧，随后因气候变化引起的冬季混合减少而加剧。对富营养化前条件和未来气候情景的模拟为湖泊的繁荣创造了安全的操作空间，而不会有严重的缺氧风险。每 3 年一次的完全冬季混合和 O2 补给可以补偿日内瓦湖的需氧量，即使超过 1.5 g O2 m-2 d-1。然而，当冬季完全混合变得不那么频繁时，即使与富营养化之前观察到的消耗率相似，也会导致持续缺氧，对低涧沼泽水生生物的生存构成重大威胁。