Enhanced relationship between seasonal soil moisture droughts and vegetation under climate change over China,Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

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Enhanced relationship between seasonal soil moisture droughts and vegetation under climate change over China
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology ( IF 5.6 ) Pub Date : 2024-10-09 , DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110258
Yi Hao, Xing Yuan, Miao Zhang

Climate change could intensify seasonal soil moisture droughts and subsequently degrade vegetation, but it can also facilitate vegetation growth with the rising temperature and CO₂ concentrations. Therefore, the change of the vegetation-drought relationship under climate change remains elusive. Here, we investigate the effects of vegetation greening (i.e., increasing leaf area index (LAI)) on seasonal soil moisture drought trends by performing a set of land surface model simulations with the Conjunctive Surface-Subsurface Process model version 2 (CSSPv2), as well as the impact of seasonal soil moisture drought change on vegetation productivity via a statistical fitting model. Our results indicate that both the impact of increasing LAI on exacerbating seasonal droughts and the impact of increasing seasonal droughts on reducing vegetation productivity have been enhanced over China during 1961–2018. Specifically, increased LAI accounts for 48 % of the rising drought frequency through escalated evapotranspiration losses, with more pronounced effects in northern semiarid regions. The decrease in vegetation stomatal conductance caused by rising CO₂ concentrations limits transpiration and alleviates 11 % of the increase in drought frequency, but it cannot fully offset the drought aggravation induced by increased vegetation water consumption under climate warming. Meanwhile, increased drought frequency and intensity have reduced the upward trend in vegetation productivity by 5 % over China, and by 8 % in water-limited northern regions. Our study shows the relationship between seasonal soil moisture droughts and vegetation over China has strengthened, indicating that vegetation greening will lead to increased water shortages and further impact vegetation growth and carbon sequestration. This challenges water resources management and environmental sustainability, especially in semiarid regions.

更新日期：2024-10-09

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