Climate change is shifting the phenology of migratory animals earlier; yet an understanding of how climate change leads to variable shifts across populations, species and communities remains hampered by limited spatial and taxonomic sampling. In this study, we used a hierarchical Bayesian model to analyse 88,965 site‐specific arrival dates from 222 bird species over 21 years to investigate the role of temperature, snowpack, precipitation, the El‐Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on the spring arrival timing of Nearctic birds. Interannual variation in bird arrival on breeding grounds was most strongly explained by temperature and snowpack, and less strongly by precipitation and climate oscillations. Sensitivity of arrival timing to climatic variation exhibited spatial nonstationarity, being highly variable within and across species. A high degree of heterogeneity in phenological sensitivity suggests diverging responses to ongoing climatic changes at the population, species and community scale, with potentially negative demographic and ecological consequences.

中文翻译：

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新北极鸟类对气候变率物候响应的空间非平稳性


气候变化正在更早地改变迁徙动物的物候;然而，对气候变化如何导致种群、物种和群落之间可变变化的理解仍然受到有限的空间和分类采样的阻碍。在这项研究中，我们使用分层贝叶斯模型分析了 21 年来 222 种鸟类的 88,965 个特定地点的到达日期，以研究温度、积雪、降水、厄尔尼诺/南方涛动和北大西洋涛动对新北极鸟类春季到达时间的影响。鸟类到达繁殖地的年际变化最强烈地由温度和积雪解释，而降水和气候波动则不太强烈。到达时间对气候变化的敏感性表现出空间不稳定性，在物种内部和物种之间变化很大。物候敏感性的高度异质性表明，在种群、物种和群落尺度上对持续气候变化的反应不同，可能会产生负面的人口和生态后果。