Over a quarter century has passed since theoretical debates surrounding competing assimilation models emerged, and durably structured research on immigrants and their descendants in America and beyond. In this article, I offer a three-pronged reflection on the contemporary state of assimilation research. First, I aim to take stock of the relative merits of segmented and neoassimilation theories and their ability to explain major empirical trends in both the US and Europe. I argue that there is now an emerging empirical consensus about the second generation in the US and Western Europe primarily experiencing intergenerational progress rather than downward assimilation as envisioned by segmented assimilation theory. I then note six analytical challenges facing further theory building: clarifying the role of race and better understanding how cultural difference shapes assimilation trajectories, rethinking the relationship between immigrant socioeconomic mobility and the experience of belonging, acknowledging the importance of immigrant selectivity in conditioning assimilation, facing issues of in- and out-of-sample selectivity due to processes endogenous to assimilation such as ethnic attrition and incarceration, and studying the third generation. Looking out and into the future, I note the need for conversations across methodological traditions and specialist subfields to encourage further theoretical progress and assess existing data infrastructures and future data requirements. Finally, in tandem with machine learning applications allowing for empirical surprise and abductive reasoning, I argue that the current era of data plenitude and unprecedented ability to collect high-dimensional surveys through nonprobability online samples is likely to lead to further theoretical progress.

中文翻译：

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21 世纪的同化理论：评估成就和未来挑战


自从围绕竞争同化模型的理论辩论出现，以及对美国及其他地区的移民及其后代的持久结构研究以来，已经过去了四分之一个世纪。在本文中，我对当代同化研究的现状进行了三管齐下的反思。首先，我旨在评估分割理论和新同化理论的相对优点，以及它们解释美国和欧洲主要实证趋势的能力。我认为，现在有一种新兴的实证共识，即美国和西欧的第二代主要经历代际进步，而不是分割同化理论所设想的向下同化。然后，我指出了进一步理论建设面临的六个分析挑战：阐明种族的作用并更好地理解文化差异如何塑造同化轨迹，重新思考移民社会经济流动性与归属感体验之间的关系，承认移民选择性在条件同化中的重要性，由于同化内生过程（如种族损耗）而面临样本内和样本外选择性问题监禁，并研究第三代。展望未来，我注意到需要跨方法论传统和专业子领域进行对话，以鼓励进一步的理论进步并评估现有的数据基础设施和未来的数据需求。 最后，结合允许实证惊喜和归纳推理的机器学习应用程序，我认为当前数据丰富的时代和通过非概率在线样本收集高维调查的空前能力可能会导致进一步的理论进步。