The projected winter changes of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet (EDJ) under climate change conditions have been extensively analysed. Previous studies have reported a squeezed and elongated EDJ. However, other changes present large uncertainties, specifically those related to the intensity and latitude. Here, the projections of the EDJ in a multimodel ensemble of CMIP6 are scrutinised by using a multiparametric description of the EDJ. The multimodel mean projects non-stationary responses of the EDJ latitude through the winter, characterised by a poleward shift in early winter and equator migration in late winter. These intraseasonal shifts (rather than a genuine narrowing) explain the previously established squeezing of the EDJ and are linked to the future changes in different drivers: the 200 hPa meridional temperature gradient and Atlantic warming hole in early winter, and the stratospheric vortex in late winter. Model biases also influence EDJ projections, contributing to the poleward shift in early winter.

在气候变化条件下，北大西洋涡流驱动急流 （EDJ） 的预估冬季变化已被广泛分析。以前的研究报道了挤压和细长的 EDJ。然而，其他变化也存在很大的不确定性，特别是与强度和纬度相关的变化。在这里，通过使用 EDJ 的多参数描述来仔细审查 EDJ 在 CMIP6 的多模型集合中的投影。多模式均值预测了 EDJ 纬度在整个冬季的非平稳响应，其特征是初冬向极地移动，冬末赤道迁移。这些季节内的变化（而不是真正的缩小）解释了先前建立的 EDJ 挤压，并与不同驱动因素的未来变化有关：初冬 200 hPa 的经向温度梯度和大西洋变暖空洞，以及冬末的平流层涡旋。模式偏差也会影响 EDJ 预测，导致初冬的极地偏移。