Agronomy for Sustainable Development ( IF 6.4 ) Pub Date : 2024-10-04 , DOI: 10.1007/s13593-024-00979-z Colin R. Tosh, Tom Staton, Ambrogio Costanzo, Will Simonson
In-field trees are thought to buffer arable crops from climate extremes through the creation of microclimates that may reduce the impacts of heat, wind, and cold. Much less is known about how trees and their biotic interactions (e.g. with natural enemies of pests and wild understory plants) impact crop yield stability to biotic stresses such as crop pests and disease. Modelling these interactions using conventional approaches is complex and time consuming, and we take a simplified approach, representing the agroecosystem as a Boolean regulatory network and parameterising Boolean functions using expert opinion. This allies our approach with decision analysis, which is increasingly finding applications in agriculture. Despite the naivety of our model, we demonstrate that it outputs complex and realistic agroecosystem dynamics. It predicts that, in English silvoarable, the biotic interactions of in-field trees boost arable crop yield overall, but they do not increase yield stability to biotic stress. Sensitivity analysis shows that arable crop yield is very sensitive to disease and weeds. We suggest that the focus of studies and debate on ecosystem service provision by English agroforestry needs to shift from natural enemies and pests to these ecosystem components. We discuss how our model can be improved through validation and parameterisation using real field data. Finally, we discuss how our approach can be used to rapidly model systems (agricultural or otherwise) than can be represented as dynamic interaction networks.
中文翻译:
英国有机造林农林业的生物胁迫和产量稳定性
田间树木被认为可以通过创造小气候来缓冲耕地作物免受极端气候的影响,从而减少热、风和寒冷的影响。关于树木及其生物相互作用(例如与害虫和野生林下植物的天敌)如何影响作物产量稳定性,对作物病虫害等生物胁迫的稳定性,人们知之甚少。使用传统方法对这些相互作用进行建模既复杂又耗时,我们采用了一种简化的方法,将农业生态系统表示为布尔调节网络,并使用专家意见将布尔函数参数化。这使我们的方法与决策分析相结合,决策分析越来越多地应用于农业。尽管我们的模型很幼稚,但我们证明了它输出了复杂而现实的农业生态系统动态。它预测,在英语 silvoarable 中,田间树木的生物相互作用提高了可耕作物的整体产量,但它们并没有增加对生物胁迫的产量稳定性。敏感性分析表明,耕地作物产量对病害和杂草非常敏感。我们建议,关于英国农林业提供生态系统服务的研究和辩论的重点需要从天敌和害虫转移到这些生态系统组成部分。我们讨论了如何通过使用真实现场数据进行验证和参数化来改进我们的模型。最后,我们讨论了如何使用我们的方法快速对系统(农业或其他)进行建模,而不是表示为动态交互网络。