Excessive nutrient inputs have caused eutrophication of coastal ecosystems worldwide, triggering extensive algal blooms, oxygen‐depletion, and collapse of local fisheries. In the Baltic Sea, inputs of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) have been significantly reduced since the 1980s, but the environmental state shows little to no signs of recovery. However, a simulation with continued high loads from the mid‐1980s demonstrates that while the state has not improved yet, it would be considerably worse today without the load reductions (e.g., 82% larger oxygen‐free bottom areas and 104% and 58% higher wintertime concentrations of inorganic N and P, respectively, in the Baltic Proper). Additional simulations with current nutrient loads continuing into the future indicate that conditions will likely improve in the coming decades. This study underscores the significance of acting on early warning signs of eutrophication, and furthermore how sustained efforts to decrease nutrient loads can mitigate the severity of eutrophication.

中文翻译：

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避免灾难：在没有人为干预以减少营养负荷的情况下波罗的海的现状


过量的养分输入导致全球沿海生态系统富营养化，引发大量藻华、氧气耗尽和当地渔业崩溃。在波罗的海，自 20 世纪 80 年代以来，氮 (N) 和磷 (P) 的输入量已显着减少，但环境状况几乎没有恢复的迹象。然而，对 20 世纪 80 年代中期持续高负荷的模拟表明，虽然状态尚未改善，但如果没有负荷减少，今天的情况会更糟（例如，无氧底部面积增加 82%，无氧底部面积增加 104% 和 58%）。波罗的海本岸冬季无机氮和磷浓度分别较高）。对当前营养负荷持续到未来的额外模拟表明，未来几十年情况可能会有所改善。这项研究强调了对富营养化早期预警信号采取行动的重要性，以及持续努力减少营养负荷如何减轻富营养化的严重程度。