How Extreme Were Daily Global Temperatures in 2023 and Early 2024?,Geophysical Research Letters

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How Extreme Were Daily Global Temperatures in 2023 and Early 2024?
Geophysical Research Letters ( IF 4.6 ) Pub Date : 2024-10-03 , DOI: 10.1029/2024gl110531
Julien Cattiaux, Aurélien Ribes, Enora Cariou

Global temperatures were exceptionally high in 2023/24. Every month from June 2023 to June 2024 set a new record, and September shattered the previous record by

0.5 $0.5$

°C. The 2023 annual average approached

1.5 $1.5$

°C above pre-industrial levels. This results from both long-term warming and internal variability, with the occurrence of an El Niño episode. However the amplitude of the 2023/24 anomalies was remarkable and surprised the scientific community. Here we analyze the rarity of 2023/24 global temperatures from a climate perspective. We show that a ‘normal’ year 2023 would have roughly equaled the previous annual record, and that the most extreme events of 2023/24 rank among the most extreme since 1940. Our analysis suggests that the 2023/24 event can be reconciled with the long-term trend and an intense, but not implausible, peak of internal variability.

更新日期：2024-10-03

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