The widely referenced “tens rule” in invasion ecology suggests that approximately 10% of established, non‐native species will become invasive. However, the accuracy of this estimate has been questioned, as the original analysis focused on small groups of plant species in Great Britain and Australia. Using a novel database of 9501 established plants and 2924 invasive plants, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the tens rule and the first empirical analysis of how invasion rates vary across spatial scales, islands/mainlands, and climate zones. We found that invasion rates (the percentage of established species with negative impacts) are highly variable across the globe. Well‐sampled environments (those with at least 2000 total non‐native species recorded) had invasion rates that ranged from 7.2% to 33.8%. Invasion rates were strongly scale‐dependent, averaging 17% at the country scale and 25% at the continental scale. We found significantly higher invasion rates on islands when compared with mainlands, regardless of scale. Tropical ecosystems are often considered to be resistant to invasion; however, our results showed significantly higher invasion rates on both tropical islands and mainlands, suggesting unexpectedly high vulnerability of these species‐rich ecosystems. We conclude that the tens rule is a poor general estimate of invasion rates for plants, as calculated invasion rates vary widely and are frequently much higher than 10%. Most locations would be better served by using invasion rates that vary based on the recipient environment. Our updated estimates of invasion rates should be highly relevant for invasive species management strategies, including weed risk assessments, which can be adjusted to identify more species as high‐risk in areas where invasion rates are higher. Assuming that 10% of established species will become invasive is likely to substantially underestimate invasion rates in most geographies.

中文翻译：

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量化全球生态系统中植物入侵的脆弱性


入侵生态学中广泛引用的“十法则”表明，大约 10% 的已建立的非本地物种将变得具有入侵性。然而，这一估计的准确性受到质疑，因为最初的分析集中在英国和澳大利亚的小群植物物种上。使用包含 9501 种已建立植物和 2924 种入侵植物的新数据库，我们对十法则进行了全面评估，并首次对入侵率在空间尺度、岛屿/大陆和气候区之间的变化进行了实证分析。我们发现，全球的入侵率（具有负面影响的已建立物种的百分比）差异很大。采样良好的环境（记录了至少 2000 个非本地物种的环境）的入侵率在 7.2% 到 33.8% 之间。入侵率在很大程度上依赖于规模，在国家规模上平均为 17%，在大陆范围内为 25%。我们发现，与大陆相比，无论规模如何，岛屿的入侵率都明显更高。热带生态系统通常被认为具有抵抗力;然而，我们的结果表明，热带岛屿和大陆的入侵率都明显更高，这表明这些物种丰富的生态系统出乎意料地高度脆弱。我们得出的结论是，十法则是对植物入侵率的糟糕一般估计，因为计算的入侵率差异很大，并且经常远高于 10%。使用根据接收者环境而变化的入侵率会更好地为大多数位置提供服务。 我们对入侵率的最新估计应该与入侵物种管理策略高度相关，包括杂草风险评估，可以对其进行调整，以在入侵率较高的地区将更多物种确定为高风险物种。假设 10% 的已建立物种将成为入侵物种，可能会大大低估大多数地区的入侵率。