To predict ecosystem change in the Arctic Ocean, understanding Arctic phytoplankton phenology is essential. We develop a marine ecosystem model focusing on phytoplankton dynamics and the competition for multiple resources based on knowledge from in situ data obtained in the Chukchi Sea. The model is designed to include the unique ecological characteristics of the Arctic Ocean. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first model successfully simulating the current paradigm for Arctic phytoplankton phenology, including both under-ice blooms and succession of phytoplankton groups. Sensitivity experiments show that the dominance of diatoms can be sustained by lateral transport of a high-silicate water mass (Pacific Winter Water). Experiments for future scenarios show that sea ice retreat drives a decrease in large diatoms and an increase in the other relatively small non-diatom groups. These results suggest that dominant phytoplankton groups can be shifted from diatoms to non-diatoms under ongoing Arctic Ocean sea ice retreat.

中文翻译：

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从冰雪覆盖期到开阔水域期的北极浮游植物物候新生态系统模型：对未来海冰消退情景的影响


为了预测北冰洋的生态系统变化，了解北极浮游植物物候至关重要。我们根据在楚科奇海获得的原位数据知识，开发了一个海洋生态系统模型，重点关注浮游植物动态和对多种资源的竞争。该模型旨在包括北冰洋独特的生态特征。据我们所知，这是第一个成功模拟北极浮游植物物候当前范式的模型，包括冰下水华和浮游植物群的演替。敏感性实验表明，硅藻的优势可以通过高硅酸盐水团（太平洋冬季水）的横向运输来维持。未来情景的实验表明，海冰消退导致大硅藻的减少和其他相对较小的非硅藻组的增加。这些结果表明，在北冰洋海冰消退的情况下，占主导地位的浮游植物群可以从硅藻转变为非硅藻。