Wildfire impacts the global carbon cycle, property, harvestable timber, and public health. Canada saw a record fire season in 2023 with 14.9 Mha burned—over seven times the 1986–2022 average of 2.1 Mha. Here we utilize a new process-based wildfire module that explicitly represents fire weather, fuel type and availability, ignition sources, fire suppression, and vegetation’s climate response to project the future of wildfire in Canada. Under rapid climate change (shared socioeconomic pathway [SSP] 370 & 585) simulated annual burned area in the 2090 s reaches 10.2 ± 2.1 to 11.7 ± 2.4 Mha, approaching the 2023 fire season total. However, climate change below a 2 °C global target (SSP126), keeps the 2090 s area burned near modern (2004–2014) norms. The simulated area burned and carbon emissions are most sensitive to climate drivers and lightning but future lightning activity is a key uncertainty.

野火影响全球碳循环、财产、可采伐木材和公共卫生。加拿大在 2023 年经历了创纪录的火灾季节，燃烧面积为 14.9 Mha，是 1986-2022 年平均燃烧量 2.1 Mha 的七倍多。在这里，我们利用一个新的基于流程的野火模块，该模块明确表示火灾天气、燃料类型和可用性、点火源、灭火和植被的气候响应，以预测加拿大野火的未来。在快速气候变化下（共享社会经济路径 [SSP] 370 和 585），2090 年代模拟的年度燃烧面积达到 10.2 ± 2.1 至 11.7 ± 2.4 Mha，接近 2023 年火灾季节的总量。然而，气候变化低于 2°C 全球目标 (SSP126)，使 2090 年代的烧毁面积保持在接近现代（2004-2014 年）标准的水平。模拟的烧毁面积和碳排放对气候驱动因素和闪电最为敏感，但未来的闪电活动是一个关键的不确定性。