This study explores the impact of initial debt financing on the survival of start-up firms by identifying three types of exit routes: bankruptcy, voluntary liquidation, and merger. Using a discrete-time duration model for Japanese start-up firms, we examine how debt financing affects the time from founding to exit. We find that firms that initially rely on debt financing from outside creditors are more likely to go bankrupt and that long-term debt, rather than short-term debt, is significantly associated with the time to exit due to bankruptcy. In contrast, such firms are less likely to liquidate voluntarily, and a lower long-term debt ratio is associated with a shorter time to voluntary liquidation. Moreover, they are less likely to exit via merger, and a lower long-term debt ratio is associated with a shorter time to exit via merger. Furthermore, the likelihood of bankruptcy, unlike voluntary liquidation and merger, is influenced by macroeconomic conditions.

本研究通过确定三种类型的退出途径：破产、自愿清算和合并，探讨初始债务融资对初创公司生存的影响。我们使用日本初创公司的离散持续时间模型，研究债务融资如何影响从成立到退出的时间。我们发现，最初依赖外部债权人债务融资的公司更有可能破产，而且长期债务而不是短期债务与破产退出时间显着相关。相比之下，此类公司自愿清算的可能性较小，并且长期债务比率较低与自愿清算时间较短相关。此外，它们通过合并退出的可能性较小，而较低的长期债务比率与通过合并退出的时间较短相关。此外，与自愿清算和合并不同，破产的可能性受到宏观经济条件的影响。