With the cascading flooding events over the past decades, several structural and non-structural measures have been effectively implemented for improved flood management. However, the uneven impacts of the flooding events have highlighted that socio-economic inequality amongst the community needs to be addressed along with hazards to devise long term and sustainable flood management strategies. This study aims to evaluate the impact of socio-economic adaptive scenarios over an urban coastal catchment for reduction in flood risk. Flood risk is estimated utilizing socio-economic aspects (vulnerability) and flood inundation (hazard), for the highly flood-prone coastal city of Mumbai, India. A multivariate approach is used for assessing socio-economic vulnerability, starting with Principal Component Analysis followed by Data Envelopment Analysis, for various socio-economic scenarios, i.e., by reducing percentage of certain feasible socio-economic sensitivity indicators, to identify the key indicators, which contribute to significant change in vulnerability. The flood hazard is assessed through a comprehensive hydrodynamic flood modelling approach to quantify the flood inundation depth and extent. The flood risk is, thereafter, evaluated by combining socio-economic vulnerability and flood hazard using bivariate risk mapping approach. The results indicate that, with the decrease in alteration percentage of certain feasible socio-economic sensitivity indicators, the overall vulnerability and flood risk may be reduced. The areas under very high and high vulnerability classes reduce gradually for all scenarios as the percentage reduction for various indicators is varied from 5 % to 15 %, total illiteracy being the most significant indicator. This study marks the first effort to discern socio-economic vulnerability indicators that have the potential to significantly diminish flood risk, thereby constituting a viable long-term flood risk mitigation strategy. This novel framework is generic and applicable to any flood prone catchments, to devise appropriate long-term flood management measures.

中文翻译：

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评估城市沿海流域管理区域洪水风险的社会经济策略


随着过去几十年发生的级联洪水事件，一些结构性和非结构性措施已得到有效实施，以改善洪水管理。然而，洪水事件的不均匀影响凸显出，需要解决社区之间的社会经济不平等和危害，以制定长期和可持续的洪水管理战略。本研究旨在评估社会经济适应情景对城市沿海流域减少洪水风险的影响。利用社会经济方面（脆弱性）和洪水泛滥（危险）来评估印度易受洪水影响的沿海城市孟买的洪水风险。采用多元方法评估社会经济脆弱性，首先进行主成分分析，然后进行数据包络分析，针对各种社会经济情景，即通过减少某些可行的社会经济敏感性指标的百分比来确定关键指标，这有助于脆弱性的重大变化。通过综合水动力洪水建模方法评估洪水危害，以量化洪水淹没深度和范围。此后，使用双变量风险绘图方法结合社会经济脆弱性和洪水灾害来评估洪水风险。结果表明，随着某些可行的社会经济敏感性指标改变百分比的降低，整体脆弱性和洪水风险可能会降低。在所有情况下，极高和高脆弱性类别的地区都会逐渐减少，各种指标的减少百分比从 5% 到 15% 不等，其中总文盲率是最重要的指标。 这项研究标志着首次努力识别有可能显着降低洪水风险的社会经济脆弱性指标，从而构成可行的长期洪水风险缓解策略。这个新颖的框架是通用的，适用于任何洪水易发的流域，以制定适当的长期洪水管理措施。