In this study, a behavioral −hydrological simulation modeling framework is developed to explore the functioning of human-water systems. The main objective is to identify the psycho-social factors affecting water conservation intentions among farmers, and then realize the interactions and bidirectional feedback between humans and water resources. For this purpose, the agent-based modeling (ABM) and extended theory of planned behavior (TPB) is recruited to reflect on the agents’ behaviors. As the first step, the framework of the extended TPB together with the agent behavior was designed via field researches through the completion of 169 questionnaires upon proportional-to-size (PPS) random sampling. The partial least squares-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) is then implemented, at the second step, to analyze the data and obtain the weights of the extended TPB constructs. The results reveal that the constructs supplemented to the TPB, including moral norms (MNs) and perceived risk (PR), could have significant effects on water conservation intentions and behaviors among farmers. At the last step, the farmers and their decision-making as the dynamic elements by obtaining feedbacks of water resources were modeled using the ABM. To evaluate the proposed framework, the recorded data of groundwater fluctuations and cultivated areas in the Lenjanat plain is utilized and compared with the socio-hydrological simulation modeling outcomes using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient. Then, five scenarios are defined to shed light on the changes in the agent behavior on the aquifer suitability, including water consumption rate and groundwater levels in the aquifer. The results correspondingly demonstrated that merging the second and third scenarios in an effort to raise the prices of crops with low water need along with the increase in utility costs (here, water and electricity) could lead to a 75% increase of farmers’ income and a 21.5% reduction in the surface and groundwater uses in this region, implying the highest level of water conservation among other scenarios.

中文翻译：

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根据农民的预测意图和人水反馈评估地下水资源的适宜性


在本研究中，开发了行为水文模拟模型框架来探索人类-水系统的功能。主要目标是识别影响农民节水意愿的社会心理因素，实现人与水资源的互动和双向反馈。为此，采用基于主体的建模（ABM）和计划行为扩展理论（TPB）来反映主体的行为。第一步，通过现场研究，通过完成 169 份按比例（PPS）随机抽样调查问卷，设计了扩展 TPB 的框架以及代理行为。然后在第二步中实施偏最小二乘结构方程建模 (PLS-SEM)，以分析数据并获得扩展 TPB 构造的权重。结果表明，TPB的补充结构，包括道德规范（MNs）和感知风险（PR），可能对农民的节水意愿和行为产生重大影响。最后一步，利用ABM对农民及其决策作为获取水资源反馈的动态要素进行建模。为了评估所提出的框架，利用了 Lenjanat 平原地下水波动和耕地面积的记录数据，并将其与使用纳什-萨特克利夫效率 (NSE) 系数的社会水文模拟模型结果进行比较。然后，定义了五个情景来阐明主体行为对含水层适宜性的变化，包括含水层的耗水率和地下水位。 结果相应地表明，将第二个和第三个情景合并起来，努力提高低需水量作物的价格，同时增加公用事业成本（这里是水和电），可能会导致农民收入增加 75%，该地区地表水和地下水使用量减少 21.5%，这意味着节水水平在其他情景中最高。