In-season maize yield prediction in Northeast China: The phase-dependent benefits of assimilating climate forecast and satellite observations,Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

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In-season maize yield prediction in Northeast China: The phase-dependent benefits of assimilating climate forecast and satellite observations
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology ( IF 5.6 ) Pub Date : 2024-09-24 , DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110242
Chenxi Lu, Guoyong Leng, Xiaoyong Liao, Haiyang Tu, Jiali Qiu, Ji Li, Shengzhi Huang, Jian Peng

Various yield forecasting methods have been reported in literature, but the benefits of assimilating seasonal climate forecasts and satellite observations for in-season yield forecasting during different growth stages have rarely been examined using machine learning. By synthesizing census yields, seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) and satellite-based gross primary production (GPP), this study develops a machine learning (i.e., Random Forest)–based in-season maize yield forecasting model for Northeast China, which produces over 40 % of China's total maize production. Based on the dynamically trained model, 11 numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the benefits of assimilating SCF and GPP relative to the experiments without using SCF and GPP for yield prediction in four forecast phases (planting–three leaves, three leaves–jointing, jointing–tasseling, tasseling–milk). Generally, our yield forecasting model exhibits a promising skill with a low bias of 4.11 %−4.97 %, when the observed climate and GPP are used as inputs. When climate forecasts are assimilated into the model by sampling historical climate, satisfactory yield forecasting can be achieved one month before harvest with a bias of 5.50 %−5.63 %. Bias-correcting climate forecast data from dynamical weather forecast models has a larger benefit for yield prediction with a lower bias of 4.77 %−5.06 %. Furthermore, we found a better benefit of assimilating SCF when compared with GPP during the first three forecast phases, although its relative importance decreases substantially towards harvest. Finally, phase-dependent maps indicating the best model are produced for each county, with historical resampling methods performing best in 40 %, 32 %, 27 %, and 21 % of counties from Phase 1 to Phase 4 and dynamical weather forecast models showing greater predictability in 54 %, 58 %, 58 %, and 52 % of counties during Phases 1–4, respectively. This study provides a useful yield forecasting framework for the breadbasket of China, which can be extended to other crops.

更新日期：2024-09-24

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