What drives the cohesion of secessionist movements? Previous research emphasized the role of internal and external factors but produced mixed results regarding their effects. This article advances scholarship on this question by examining the role of critical junctures as periods of heightened contingency that can shift movements towards fragmentation or cohesion. It focuses on independence referendums and how states respond to them as important critical junctures, and on how they shape interorganizational relations as a key dimension of movement cohesion. Empirically, it explores the effects of the 2017 referendum in Catalonia using a mixed-methods research design that combines qualitative inquiry with network analyses of protest event data. The network analyses showed that the movement was notably less cohesive in the protest arena after the referendum than during the referendum campaign. Qualitative materials were employed to inductively identify strategy framing processes as key mechanisms to explain this development. Frame alignment around the referendum as a shared goal led to more cohesion during the campaign. After the event, a frame dispute over the meaning of the referendum led to diverging strategies and fragmented the movement, as state repression limited the movement’s room for maneuver. The findings suggest that research on secessionist movement cohesion should pay more attention to critical junctures and how secessionists make sense of them.

中文翻译：

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关键时刻如何塑造分离主义运动凝聚力：2017 年加泰罗尼亚公投前后的战略、框架流程和组织间关系


是什么推动了分裂主义运动的凝聚力？先前的研究强调内部和外部因素的作用，但就其影响得出的结果好坏参半。本文通过研究关键时刻作为高度偶然性时期的作用，可以将运动转向分裂或凝聚，从而推进了关于这个问题的学术研究。它重点关注独立公投以及各国如何应对重要的关键时刻，以及它们如何塑造组织间关系作为运动凝聚力的关键维度。从经验上讲，它采用混合方法研究设计，将定性调查与抗议事件数据的网络分析相结合，探讨了 2017 年加泰罗尼亚公投的影响。网络分析显示，公投后抗议领域的运动凝聚力明显低于公投运动期间。采用定性材料来归纳确定战略框架过程作为解释这一发展的关键机制。围绕公投作为共同目标的框架一致导致了竞选期间的更大凝聚力。事件发生后，由于国家镇压限制了运动的回旋余地，围绕公投意义的框架争议导致策略分歧，导致运动支离破碎。研究结果表明，对分离主义运动凝聚力的研究应该更多地关注关键时刻以及分离主义者如何理解它们。