A better understanding of spatial‐temporal demographic changes in rural regions can contribute to envision potential rural futures and improve regional planning. This research aimed to analyse the migration balance and its spatial‐temporal changes in a rural basin in the Russian Federation's North Caucasus District. The basin was divided into water functional zones to examine the environmental conditions and relate them to possible future anthropogenic pressures and threats to population well‐being. Two migration balance indicators (on total population and working‐age sector) were calculated in settlements to classify them as attractors, expellers or stable population entities in two census data (2014 and 2020). The spatial‐temporal changes were assessed by testing two hypotheses: one related to population concentration and rural depopulation trends; the other focused on working‐age migration and workforce availability. Moreover, a foresight tool employed migration balance indicators in 2020 to explore population trends and possible trajectories. Findings revealed that in this rural basin, a small number of settlements served as attractors in the upper functional zone where two urban centres are found, potentially intensifying soil erosion and pollution. In the middle and lower functional zones, most rural and small urban settlements showed unfavored migration balances, leading to population and workforce decline. Negative environmental factors like declining water quality and increased wind erosion could worsen this trend. The migration challenges by functional zones highlight the growing regional disparities. The combination of spatial demography with the basin approach provided improved information to foster collaboration in a shared basin and effectively address undesirable rural outcomes at regional level.

中文翻译：

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通过北高加索农村盆地时空迁移平衡变化探索农村未来


更好地了解农村地区的时空人口变化有助于展望潜在的农村未来并改进区域规划。本研究旨在分析俄罗斯联邦北高加索地区农村盆地的移民平衡及其时空变化。该流域被划分为水功能区，以检查环境条件并将其与未来可能的人为压力和对人口福祉的威胁联系起来。在两次人口普查数据（2014 年和 2020 年）中，计算了定居点的两个迁移平衡指标（总人口和劳动年龄部门），将其分为吸引者、驱逐者或稳定人口实体。通过检验两个假设来评估时空变化：一个与人口集中和农村人口减少趋势有关；另一个与人口集中和农村人口减少趋势有关。另一个重点关注工作年龄移民和劳动力供应。此外，前瞻工具利用2020年的人口迁移平衡指标来探索人口趋势和可能的轨迹。研究结果显示，在这个农村盆地中，少数定居点在存在两个城市中心的上部功能区中充当了吸引子的角色，可能会加剧水土流失和污染。在中下功能区，大部分城乡居民点呈现出不利的人口迁移平衡，导致人口和劳动力下降。水质下降和风蚀加剧等负面环境因素可能会加剧这一趋势。各功能区面临的移民挑战凸显了日益扩大的地区差距。 空间人口学与流域方法的结合提供了改进的信息，以促进共享流域内的合作，并有效解决区域一级的不良农村后果。