Factorial surveys (FSs) are increasingly used to predict real-world decisions. However, there is a paucity of research assessing whether these predictions are valid and, if so, under what conditions. In this preregistered study, we sent out N = 3,002 applications to job vacancies in Germany and measured real-world responses. Eight weeks later, we presented nearly identical applicant profiles to the same employers as a part of an FS. To explore the conditions under which FSs provide valid behavioral predictions, we varied the topic sensitivity and tested whether behavioral predictions were more successful after filtering out respondents who gave socially desirable answers or did not exert sufficient effort when answering FS vignettes. Across conditions, the FS results did not correspond well with the real-world benchmark. We conclude that researchers must exercise caution when using FSs to study (hiring) behavior.

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因子调查 (FS) 越来越多地用于预测现实世界的决策。然而，很少有研究评估这些预测是否有效，如果有效，在什么条件下有效。在这项预先注册的研究中，我们向德国的职位空缺发出了 N = 3,002 份申请，并测量了现实世界的反应。八周后，作为 FS 的一部分，我们向相同的雇主提供了几乎相同的申请人资料。为了探索 FS 提供有效行为预测的条件，我们改变了主题敏感性，并在过滤掉给出社会期望答案或在回答 FS 小插曲时没有付出足够努力的受访者后测试行为预测是否更成功。在各种条件下，FS 结果与现实世界的基准并不一致。我们的结论是，研究人员在使用 FS 研究（雇用）行为时必须谨慎行事。

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