Background Myopia is a pervasive global public health concern, particularly among the younger population. However, the escalating prevalence of myopia remains uncertain. Hence, our research aims to ascertain the global and regional prevalence of myopia, along with its occurrence within specific demographic groups. Methods An exhaustive literature search was performed on several databases covering the period from their inception to 27 June 2023. The global prevalence of myopia was determined by employing pooled estimates with a 95% CI, and further analysis was conducted to assess variations in prevalence estimates across different subgroups. Additionally, a time series model was utilised to forecast and fit accurately the future prevalence of myopia for the next three decades. Results This study encompasses a comprehensive analysis of 276 studies, involving a total of 5 410 945 participants from 50 countries across all six continents. The findings revealed a gradual increase in pooled prevalence of myopia, ranging from 24.32% (95% CI 15.23% to 33.40%) to 35.81% (95% CI 31.70% to 39.91%), observed from 1990 to 2023, and projections indicate that this prevalence is expected to reach 36.59% in 2040 and 39.80% in 2050. Notably, individuals residing in East Asia (35.22%) or in urban areas (28.55%), female gender (33.57%), adolescents (47.00%), and high school students (45.71%) exhibit a higher proportion of myopia prevalence. Conclusion The global prevalence of childhood myopia is substantial, affecting approximately one-third of children and adolescents, with notable variations in prevalence across different demographic groups. It is anticipated that the global incidence of myopia will exceed 740 million cases by 2050. All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as supplementary information. All the data included in our study are from published studies.

中文翻译：

---

1990年至2050年全球儿童和青少年近视患病率、趋势和预测：全面系统回顾和荟萃分析


背景 近视是一个普遍存在的全球公共卫生问题，尤其是在年轻人中。然而，近视患病率不断上升仍不确定。因此，我们的研究旨在确定全球和区域近视患病率及其在特定人口群体中的发生情况。方法 对多个数据库进行了详尽的文献检索，涵盖从数据库成立到 2023 年 6 月 27 日的期间。通过采用 95% CI 的汇总估计值来确定全球近视患病率，并进行进一步分析以评估各个国家的患病率估计值的差异。不同的亚组。此外，还利用时间序列模型来准确预测和拟合未来三十年的近视患病率。结果 本研究对 276 项研究进行了综合分析，涉及来自六大洲 50 个国家的 5,410,945 名参与者。研究结果显示，从 1990 年到 2023 年，近视的总体患病率逐渐增加，范围从 24.32%（95% CI 15.23% 至 33.40%）到 35.81%（95% CI 31.70% 至 39.91%），并且预测表明预计到 2040 年，这一患病率将达到 36.59%，到 2050 年将达到 39.80%。值得注意的是，居住在东亚（35.22%）或城市地区（28.55%）、女性（33.57%）、青少年（47.00%）和高中生（45.71%）近视患病率较高。结论 全球儿童近视患病率很高，影响约三分之一的儿童和青少年，不同人口群体的患病率存在​​显着差异。预计到2050年，全球近视发病率将超过7.4亿例。 与研究相关的所有数据都包含在文章中或作为补充信息上传。我们研究中包含的所有数据均来自已发表的研究。