Interacting trends of colorectal cancer incidence: the combined effects of screening and birth cohort,International Journal of Epidemiology

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Interacting trends of colorectal cancer incidence: the combined effects of screening and birth cohort
International Journal of Epidemiology ( IF 6.4 ) Pub Date : 2024-09-24 , DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyae123
Chih-Lin Kuo, Jing-Rong Jhuang, Shih-Yung Su, Chun-Ju Chiang, Ya-Wen Yang, Li-Ju Lin, Pei-Chun Hsieh, Tsui-Hsia Hsu, Wen-Chung Lee

Background Colorectal cancer remains a major global public health challenge. Its incidence is shaped by a complex interplay of screening programmes and age, period and cohort factors. Methods We introduce a novel Age-Period-Cohort-Screening (APCS) model to analyse trends in colorectal cancer incidence in Taiwan from 2000 to 2019. Results In 2010, the incidence of colorectal cancer in Taiwan increased by 19.2% (95% CI: 13.5%, 25.3%) for men and 15.6% (95% CI: 9.2%, 22.4%) for women. This was followed by annual declines of 3.4% (95% CI: 2.8%, 4.1%) and 3.1% (95% CI: 2.4%, 3.9%), respectively. By 2015 for men and 2014 for women, the age-standardized incidence had fallen below the levels projected in a no-screening scenario. By 2019, the incidence had further declined by 12.4% (95% CI: 11.8%, 13.1%) for men and 11.6% (95% CI: 10.7%, 12.6%) for women, compared with the no-screening scenario. Cohort effects have shown a persistent rise from 1920 to 1980: incidence increased 5.8-fold for men and 3.1-fold for women. The trend began to plateau after 1980, with a noticeable decline in women. Conclusion Through its screening programme, Taiwan has successfully reduced colorectal cancer incidence by 10% as of 2019. Furthermore, the incidence due to cohort effects has plateaued and even begun to decline. However, continued monitoring remains crucial. The advanced APCS model could serve as a robust analytical tool for other researchers and policy makers evaluating the impacts of cancer screening programmes on incidence trends.

更新日期：2024-09-24

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