Climate change mitigation requires the large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). Recent plans indicate an eight-fold increase in CCS capacity by 2030, yet the feasibility of CCS expansion is debated. Using historical growth of CCS and other policy-driven technologies, we show that if plans double between 2023 and 2025 and their failure rates decrease by half, CCS could reach 0.37 GtCO₂yr⁻¹ by 2030—lower than most 1.5 °C pathways but higher than most 2 °C pathways. Staying on-track to 2 °C would require that in 2030–2040 CCS accelerates at least as fast as wind power did in the 2000s, and that after 2040, it grows faster than nuclear power did in the 1970s to 1980s. Only 10% of mitigation pathways meet these feasibility constraints, and virtually all of them depict <600 GtCO₂ captured and stored by 2100. Relaxing the constraints by assuming no failures of CCS plans and growth as fast as flue-gas desulfurization would approximately double this amount.

减缓气候变化需要大规模部署碳捕获与封存 （CCS）。最近的计划表明，到 2030 年，CCS 产能将增加 8 倍，但 CCS 扩展的可行性仍存在争议。利用 CCS 和其他政策驱动技术的历史增长，我们表明，如果计划在 2023 年至 2025 年之间翻倍，并且失败率降低一半，那么到 2030 年，CCS 可能达到 0.37 GtCO₂ ^yr-1——低于大多数 1.5 °C 途径，但高于大多数 2 °C 途径。保持在 2 °C 的轨道上需要 CCS 在 2030-2040 年加速至少与 2000 年代的风力发电一样快，并且在 2040 年之后，它的增长速度比 1970 年代到 1980 年代的核能增长更快。只有 10% 的缓解途径满足这些可行性限制，而且几乎所有途径都描述了到 2100 年捕获和储存的 <600 GtCO₂。通过假设 CCS 计划没有失败并且增长速度与烟气脱硫一样快来放宽限制，这将使这一数量大约翻倍。