Hydrologists and civil engineers often use design storms to assess flash flood hazards in urban, rural, and mountainous catchments. These synthetic storms are not representations of real extreme rainfall events, but rather simplified versions parameterized to mimic extreme precipitation statistics often obtained from intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves. To construct design storms for the future climate, it is thus necessary first to recalculate IDF curves to represent rainfall under warmer conditions. We propose a framework for adjusting IDF curves and design storms to future climate conditions using the TENAX model, a novel statistical approach that can provide future short-duration precipitation return levels based on projected temperature changes. For most applications, information from climate models at the daily scale can be used to construct design storms at the sub-hourly scale without any downscaling or bias adjustment. Our approach is illustrated through a re-parameterization of the Chicago Design Storm (CDS) in the context of climate change. As a case study demonstration, we apply the TENAX model to data from the city of Zurich to calculate changes in the historical IDF curve for durations ranging from 10 min to 3 h. We then construct synthetic 100-year return period design storms based on the CDS for present and future climates and use the CAFlood model to produce flood inundation maps to assess changes in flood hazard. The codes for adapting design storms to climate change are simple to implement, easily applicable by practitioners, and made freely available.

中文翻译：

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一种简单而强大的方法，用于调整设计风暴以评估气候引起的山洪灾害变化


水文学家和土木工程师经常使用设计风暴来评估城市、农村和山区集水区的山洪灾害。这些合成风暴并不是真实极端降雨事件的表示，而是简化的版本，用于模拟通常从强度-持续时间-频率 （IDF） 曲线获得的极端降水统计数据。因此，为了构建未来气候的设计风暴，首先需要重新计算 IDF 曲线以表示温暖条件下的降雨。我们提出了一个框架，使用 TENAX 模型调整 IDF 曲线并根据未来的气候条件设计风暴，TENAX 模型是一种新颖的统计方法，可以根据预测的温度变化提供未来的短期降水返回水平。对于大多数应用，来自日尺度气候模型的信息可用于构建亚小时尺度的设计风暴，而无需任何缩小或偏差调整。我们的方法通过在气候变化背景下对芝加哥设计风暴 （CDS） 的重新参数化来说明。作为案例研究演示，我们将 TENAX 模型应用于来自苏黎世市的数据，以计算持续时间从 10 分钟到 3 小时不等的历史 IDF 曲线的变化。然后，我们根据 CDS 为当前和未来气候构建合成的 100 年重现期设计风暴，并使用 CAFlood 模型制作洪水泛滥地图以评估洪水灾害的变化。使设计风暴适应气候变化的规范易于实施，易于从业者应用，并且免费提供。