BACKGROUND Weather variability is associated with enteric infections in people through a complex interaction of human, animal, and environmental factors. Although Campylobacter infections have been previously associated with precipitation and temperature, the association between precipitation and drought on campylobacteriosis has not been studied. OBJECTIVE Using data from Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and counties in Utah, this ecological study aimed to assess the association between precipitation and the incidence of campylobacteriosis by county from 2009 to 2021 and to determine how this association is modified by prior drought level and animal operations. METHODS We merged 38,782 cases of campylobacteriosis reported in 127 counties with total precipitation (in inches), temperature (in average degrees Fahrenheit), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI, category), and animal census data (presence, density per square mile) by week from 2009 to 2021. Negative binomial generalized estimating equations adjusted for temperature with a 3-wk lag were used to explore the association between precipitation on campylobacteriosis with resulting incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Stratified analyses explored the association with precipitation following antecedent drought, presence of farm operations, and animal density. RESULTS A 1-in (25.4 mm) increase in precipitation was associated with a 3% increase in campylobacteriosis reported 3 wks later (IRR=1.03; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.04) after adjusting for average temperature and PDSI. Compared with normal conditions, there were significantly more cases when precipitation followed antecedent extremely wet (IRR=1.15; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.26), very wet (IRR=1.09; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.18), moderately wet (IRR=1.06; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.12), moderate drought (IRR=1.11; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.16), and severe drought (IRR=1.06; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.11) conditions, whereas there were significantly fewer cases (IRR=0.89; 95% CI: 0.85, 0.94) for antecedent extreme drought. Compared to counties with no animal operations, counties with animal operations had significantly more cases following precipitation for every PDSI category except extreme drought. Counties with a higher density of beef cattle, goats for meat, chicken broilers, and chicken layers had significantly higher rates of campylobacteriosis following precipitation than those with no such operations, whereas those with dairy cattle and goats for milk, did not. DISCUSSION In this majority arid and semiarid environment, precipitation following prior wet conditions and moderate and severe drought were significantly associated with increased rates of campylobacteriosis, and only in prior extreme drought did rates decrease. Where the precipitation fell made a difference; after precipitation, counties with farm operations had significantly more cases compared to counties without farm operations. Further work should assess individual-level risk factors within environmental exposure pathways for Campylobacter. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14693.

中文翻译：

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2009-2021 年美国西南部降水事件、干旱和动物活动与弯曲杆菌感染之间的关联。


背景技术天气变化通过人类、动物和环境因素的复杂相互作用与人的肠道感染相关。尽管弯曲杆菌感染之前已被认为与降水和温度有关，但降水和干旱之间与弯曲杆菌病的关联尚未研究。目的 使用来自亚利桑那州、科罗拉多州、新墨西哥州和犹他州各县的数据，这项生态研究旨在评估 2009 年至 2021 年各县降水量与弯曲菌病发病率之间的关联，并确定这种关联如何被先前的干旱水平和动物操作。方法 我们合并了 127 个县报告的 38,782 例弯曲菌病病例，包括总降水量（以英寸为单位）、温度（以华氏度为单位）、帕尔默干旱严重程度指数（PDSI，类别）和动物普查数据（存在、每平方英里的密度），从 2009 年到 2021 年，负二项式广义估计方程根据 3 周滞后的温度进行了调整，用于探索降水对弯曲菌病的影响与由此产生的发病率比 (IRR) 之间的关联。分层分析探讨了先前干旱后的降水量、农场经营情况和动物密度之间的关系。结果 调整平均温度和 PDSI 后，降水量增加 1 英寸（25.4 毫米）与 3 周后报告的弯曲菌病增加 3% 相关（IRR=1.03；95% CI：1.02，1.04）。与正常条件相比，极端湿润（IRR=1.15；95% CI：1.04，1.26）、非常湿润（IRR=1.09；95% CI：1.01，1.18）、中等湿润（IRR=1.01，1.18）的情况显着增多。 =1.06；95% CI：1.01，1.12），中度干旱（IRR=1。11； 95% CI: 1.07, 1.16) 和严重干旱 (IRR=1.06; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.11) 条件，而之前发生的极端干旱的病例明显较少 (IRR=0.89; 95% CI: 0.85, 0.94) 。与没有动物活动的县相比，除了极端干旱之外，有动物活动的县在每个 PDSI 类别降水后的病例数显着增加。肉牛、肉用山羊、肉鸡和蛋鸡密度较高的县，降水后弯曲菌病的发病率明显高于没有此类养殖的县，而饲养奶牛和产奶山羊的县则不然。讨论 在这种以干旱和半干旱为主的环境中，先前潮湿条件以及中度和重度干旱后的降水与弯曲菌病发病率的增加显着相关，并且只有在先前的极端干旱中，发病率才会下降。降水落在哪里会产生影响；降水后，有农场经营的县的病例明显多于没有农场经营的县。进一步的工作应评估弯曲杆菌环境暴露途径中的个体风险因素。 https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14693。