How can decarbonization governance endure under increasing geoeconomic distress? Global tensions threaten to divert financial and political resources from the green transition toward national security issues. However, we lack the analytical tools to assess decarbonization governance in this age of global rivalries. To address this gap, we develop an analytical framework to study the effects of geoeconomic shocks through investment, operational, and political channels. Using macro‐ and company‐level data and document analysis, we empirically test our framework using Germany's decarbonization governance following the cutoff of its Russian gas supply in 2022 as a case study. We find that this shock had negative short‐term effects on decarbonization via the operational channel, mixed effects via the political channel, and positive long‐term effects via the investment channel. Our framework and findings contribute to establishing climate change and energy politics as core issues for future political economy research.

中文翻译：

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地缘经济困境下的脱碳？能源冲击、碳锁定和德国的净零之路


在地缘经济困境日益加剧的情况下，脱碳治理如何持续？全球紧张局势有可能将金融和政治资源从绿色转型转向国家安全问题。然而，在这个全球竞争的时代，我们缺乏评估脱碳治理的分析工具。为了解决这一差距，我们制定了一个分析框架，通过投资、运营和政治渠道来研究地缘经济冲击的影响。利用宏观和公司层面的数据和文件分析，我们以德国 2022 年切断俄罗斯天然气供应后的脱碳治理为案例研究，对我们的框架进行了实证检验。我们发现，这种冲击通过运营渠道对脱碳产生负面的短期影响，通过政治渠道产生混合影响，通过投资渠道产生积极的长期影响。我们的框架和研究结果有助于将气候变化和能源政治确立为未来政治经济学研究的核心问题。