The war in Ukraine has caused massive destruction of the country’s infrastructure, particularly its electricity system. Discussions on how to rebuild the system are underway within the country and the international community. Yet, major uncertainties about patterns of destruction and rebuilding potential complicate this task. Here, we present the first comprehensive and geo-spatial mapping of the Ukrainian electricity system and its destruction during the ongoing war. We find that virtually all large, centralized power plants have been attacked since February 2022, reducing overall generation capacity to roughly a third of before-war levels and substantially weakening the grid via attacks on transmission lines and substations, particularly in the east. We argue that any effort to rebuild the electricity system should meet four criteria: fast rebuilding, increased resilience, lowered fuel import dependence, and abatement of polluting emissions. Based on an estimation of the country’s wind and solar potential, we argue that these renewables should form the backbone of a future electricity system, as only they meet all four criteria, and we discuss how Ukrainian and international policymakers can facilitate and direct investment.

中文翻译：

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为什么可再生能源应该成为重建乌克兰电力系统的核心


乌克兰战争对该国的基础设施造成了大规模破坏，尤其是电力系统。该国和国际社会正在讨论如何重建该系统。然而，关于破坏模式和重建潜力的重大不确定性使这项任务变得复杂。在这里，我们首次展示了乌克兰电力系统及其在持续战争期间的破坏的全面地理空间地图。我们发现，自 2022 年 2 月以来，几乎所有大型集中式发电厂都遭到攻击，总发电量降低到战前水平的三分之一左右，并通过对输电线路和变电站的攻击大大削弱了电网，尤其是在东部。我们认为，任何重建电力系统的努力都应该满足四个标准：快速重建、提高弹性、降低对燃料进口的依赖以及减少污染排放。基于对该国风能和太阳能潜力的估计，我们认为这些可再生能源应该构成未来电力系统的支柱，因为只有它们满足所有四个标准，我们还讨论了乌克兰和国际政策制定者如何促进和指导投资。