BACKGROUND While some evidence has potentially linked climate change to carcinogenic factors, the long-term effect of climate change on liver cancer risk largely remains unclear. OBJECTIVES Our objective is to evaluate the long-term relationship between temperature increase and liver cancer incidence in Australia. METHODS We mapped the spatial distribution of liver cancer incidence from 2001 to 2019 in Australia. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to estimate the relationships between the increase in temperature at different lags and liver cancer incidence in Australia, after controlling for chronic hepatitis B prevalence, chronic hepatitis C prevalence, and the Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage. Spatial random effects obtained from the Bayesian CAR model were also mapped. RESULTS The research showed that the distribution of liver cancer in Australia is spatially clustered, most areas in Northern Territory and Northern Queensland have higher incidence and relative risk. The increase in temperature at the lag of 30 years was found to correlate with the increase in liver cancer incidence in Australia, with a posterior mean of 30.57 [95% Bayesian credible interval (CrI): 0.17, 58.88] for the univariate model and 29.50 (95% CrI: 1.27, 58.95) after controlling for confounders, respectively. The results were not highly credible for other lags. DISCUSSION Our Bayesian spatial analysis suggested a potential relationship between temperature increase and liver cancer. To our knowledge, this research marks the first attempt to assess the long-term effect of global warming on liver cancer. If the relationship is confirmed by other studies, these findings may inform the development of prevention and mitigation strategies based on climate change projections. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14574.

中文翻译：

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温度升高对澳大利亚肝癌的长期影响：贝叶斯空间分析。


背景虽然一些证据可能将气候变化与致癌因素联系起来，但气候变化对肝癌风险的长期影响在很大程度上仍不清楚。目标 我们的目标是评估澳大利亚气温升高与肝癌发病率之间的长期关系。方法 我们绘制了澳大利亚 2001 年至 2019 年肝癌发病率的空间分布图。在控制了慢性乙型肝炎患病率、慢性丙型肝炎患病率和相对社会指数后，使用贝叶斯空间条件自回归（CAR）模型来估计澳大利亚不同滞后温度升高与肝癌发病率之间的关系。经济劣势。还绘制了从贝叶斯 CAR 模型获得的空间随机效应。结果 研究表明，澳大利亚肝癌的分布呈空间聚集性，北领地和北昆士兰大部分地区的发病率和相对风险较高。研究发现，滞后 30 年的气温升高与澳大利亚肝癌发病率的增加相关，单变量模型的后验平均值为 30.57 [95% 贝叶斯可信区间 (CrI)：0.17, 58.88]，单变量模型的后验平均值为 29.50 (95% CrI: 1.27, 58.95) 分别控制混杂因素后。对于其他滞后，结果的可信度不高。讨论 我们的贝叶斯空间分析表明温度升高与肝癌之间存在潜在关系。据我们所知，这项研究标志着首次尝试评估全球变暖对肝癌的长期影响。 如果这种关系得到其他研究的证实，这些发现可能会为基于气候变化预测的预防和缓解战略的制定提供信息。 https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14574。