Despite continuous population decline or stagnation, many Central and Eastern European cities experience urban sprawl and expansion, accompanied by excessive land take and land use change. This paper investigates recent trends in land take and land use change in Hungarian cities, aiming to identify the drivers of these processes. The study utilizes the Urban Atlas (UA) databases from 2006 and 2018 to analyze land use change in selected Hungarian cities, employing QGIS software to compile the database and MS Excel to conduct the statistical analysis. A linear trajectory model is employed to project land use change by 2026, based on 2006–2018 UA data. Additionally, via the in-depth analysis of Debrecen, the study highlights the recent acceleration of land use change to compare the projected trend with the forecasted one. Local climate strategies focus on addressing environmental concerns, including changes in land use at the city level. Therefore, this study reviews the relevant documents associated with each city to assess its commitment to reducing land take. The results indicate that despite its declining population, Hungary has seen a significant expansion in artificial surfaces, primarily due to industrialization and population policies introduced by the central government, which is likely to continue in the coming years. Unfortunately, local climate strategies have been insufficient in preventing cities from experiencing urban sprawl and expansion and preserving local ecosystem services. This underscores the inability of municipalities to defend local interests against central government directives. The findings of this study indicate that the current central policies are the main drivers of land take and urban sprawl and expansion. Prioritizing the compact city model and brownfield developments could effectively mitigate these issues. Finally, the paper advocates that complete jurisdiction over land use decisions be restored to local governments, enabling them to reject investments that may jeopardize local environmental goals.

中文翻译：

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为了更大的利益而牺牲？匈牙利过度征用土地和土地用途变化的主要驱动因素


尽管人口持续下降或停滞不前，但许多中欧和东欧城市经历了城市扩张和扩张，并伴随着过度的土地占用和土地用途变化。本文调查了匈牙利城市土地征收和土地利用变化的最新趋势，旨在确定这些过程的驱动因素。该研究利用 2006 年和 2018 年的城市地图集 （UA） 数据库来分析匈牙利选定城市的土地利用变化，使用 QGIS 软件编译数据库，并使用 MS Excel 进行统计分析。根据 2006-2018 年 UA 数据，采用线性轨迹模型来预测到 2026 年的土地利用变化。此外，通过对德布勒森的深入分析，该研究强调了最近土地利用变化的加速，以将预测趋势与预测趋势进行比较。地方气候战略侧重于解决环境问题，包括城市层面土地用途的变化。因此，本研究审查了与每个城市相关的相关文件，以评估其对减少土地征收的承诺。结果表明，尽管匈牙利人口下降，但人造表面的显着扩张，这主要是由于中央政府出台的工业化和人口政策，这种情况可能会在未来几年继续下去。不幸的是，地方气候策略在防止城市经历城市扩张和保护当地生态系统服务方面是不够的。这凸显了市政当局无力捍卫地方利益，反对中央政府的指示。本研究的结果表明，当前的中央政策是土地征用和城市扩张的主要驱动力。 优先考虑紧凑型城市模型和棕地开发可以有效地缓解这些问题。最后，本文主张将对土地使用决策的完全管辖权归还给地方政府，使他们能够拒绝可能危及当地环境目标的投资。