There have been few documented extinctions of fished species, but many bioeconomic models predict that open‐access incentives make extinction possible. Open‐access multi‐species fisheries can cause species' extinction if other, faster‐growing species maintain profits at fatal effort levels. Even target species can be profitably harvested to extinction if their prices rise sufficiently as they are depleted. Here, we explore interactions between these potential extinction mechanisms by modelling an open‐access multi‐species fishery with one or multiple fleets exploiting two species, each with different growth rates, ex‐vessel prices, and price dynamics. Increases in the strong stock's (the stock with higher productivity relative to fishing susceptibility) price as it is depleted increase the range of conditions under which the weak stock can be driven extinct and shrinks the range of bioeconomic parameters in which both species can coexist under open‐access. Catch hyperstability – whereby species become easier to catch as they are depleted – makes the weak stock weaker as it is depleted and further narrows the scope for coexistence. Fleet diversity in targeting ability can prevent weak stock extinction, as competition or switching balances species abundances. With few documented global fished‐species extinctions, our results raise important questions, which we discuss. Is the apparent lack of extinctions largely due to management? Are more species in lightly‐managed fisheries threatened with extinction than previously acknowledged? Have more extinctions than we realize already happened in data‐ and management‐poor fisheries? Or have fishes' high fecundity and the oceans' vastness provided protection against extinction that is uncaptured by existing theoretical models?

中文翻译：

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价格和生活史之间的协同作用增加了开放渔业的灭绝风险


捕捞物种灭绝的记录很少，但许多生物经济模型预测，开放获取激励措施使灭绝成为可能。如果其他生长较快的物种以致命的努力维持利润，开放的多物种渔业可能会导致物种灭绝。即使是目标物种，如果它们的价格随着它们的枯竭而充分上涨，也可以通过捕捞来获利，直至灭绝。在这里，我们通过对开放式多物种渔业进行建模，探索这些潜在灭绝机制之间的相互作用，其中一个或多个船队捕捞两个物种，每个物种都有不同的增长率、离船价格和价格动态。强种群（相对于捕捞敏感性而言生产力较高的种群）价格随着其枯竭而增加，从而增加了弱种群可能被灭绝的条件范围，并缩小了两个物种在开放条件下可以共存的生物经济参数范围-使用权。捕捞超稳定性（即物种在数量减少时变得更容易捕获）使弱种群在数量减少时变得更弱，并进一步缩小了共存的范围。目标能力的舰队多样性可以防止弱种群灭绝，因为竞争或转换平衡了物种丰度。由于全球鱼类物种灭绝的记录很少，我们的结果提出了重要的问题，我们对此进行了讨论。表面上没有灭绝现象主要是由于管理吗？管理松散的渔业中面临灭绝威胁的物种是否比之前承认的还要多？在数据和管理匮乏的渔业中，已经发生的灭绝事件是否比我们意识到的还要多？或者，鱼类的高繁殖力和广阔的海洋是否提供了现有理论模型无法捕捉到的防止灭绝的保护？