A timely and well-managed phase-out of bank lending to the fossil fuel sector is critical if Paris climate targets are to remain within reach. Using a systems lens to explore over $7 trillion of syndicated fossil fuel debt, we show that syndicated debt markets are resilient to uncoordinated phase-out scenarios without regulatory limits on banks’ fossil fuel lending. However, with regulation in place, a tipping point emerges as banks sequentially exit the sector and phase-out becomes efficient. The timing of this tipping point depends critically on the stringency of regulatory rules. It is reached sooner in scenarios where systemically important banks lead the phase-out and is delayed without regional coordination, particularly between US, Canadian and Japanese banks.

如果巴黎气候目标要保持在可实现的范围内，及时且管理良好地逐步取消银行对化石燃料行业的贷款至关重要。通过系统视角探索超过 7 万亿美元的银团化石燃料债务，我们发现银团债务市场能够适应不协调的逐步淘汰情景，而无需对银行化石燃料贷款进行监管限制。然而，随着监管到位，随着银行相继退出该行业并且逐步淘汰变得有效，一个转折点就会出现。这一转折点的出现时间关键取决于监管规则的严格程度。如果具有系统重要性的银行带头逐步淘汰，则可以更快地实现这一目标，而如果没有区域协调，特别是美国、加拿大和日本银行之间的协调，这一目标就会被推迟。