Global warming is rapidly shifting climate conditions away from what societies and ecosystems are adapted to. While the magnitude of changes in mean and extreme climate are broadly studied, regional rates of change, a key driver of climate risk, have received less attention. Here we show, using large ensembles of climate model simulations, that large parts of the tropics and subtropics, encompassing 70% of current global population, are expected to experience strong (>2 s.d.) joint rates of change in temperature and precipitation extremes combined over the next 20 years, under a high-emissions scenario, dropping to 20% under strong emissions mitigation. This is dominated by temperature extremes, with most of the world experiencing unusual (>1 s.d.) rates relative to the pre-industrial period, but unusual changes also occur for precipitation extremes in northern high latitudes, southern and eastern Asia and equatorial Africa. However, internal variability is high for 20 year trends, meaning that in the near term, trends of the opposite sign are still likely for precipitation extremes, and rare but not impossible for temperature extremes. We also find that rapid clean-up of aerosol emissions, mostly over Asia, leads to accelerated co-located increases in warm extremes and influences the Asian summer monsoons.

全球变暖正在迅速改变社会和生态系统所适应的气候条件。虽然平均和极端气候变化的幅度得到了广泛研究，但气候风险的关键驱动因素——区域变化率却受到较少关注。在这里，我们使用大型气候模型模拟集合表明，热带和亚热带的大部分地区（涵盖当前全球人口的 70%）预计将经历强劲的 (>2 sd) 温度和降水极端值联合变化率未来20年，在高排放情景下，在大力减排的情况下降至20%。这主要是极端温度，与前工业化时期相比，世界大部分地区经历了不寻常的（>1 sd）速率，但北部高纬度地区、南亚和东亚以及赤道非洲的极端降水也发生了不寻常的变化。然而，20 年趋势的内部变率很高，这意味着在短期内，极端降水量仍可能出现相反趋势，而极端气温则很少见，但并非不可能。我们还发现，气溶胶排放的快速清理（主要是在亚洲）会导致极端温暖事件的加速增加，并影响亚洲夏季季风。