Global warming has accelerated alpine glacier melting and led to an increased risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This paper extracted glacial lake boundaries in the Tienshan Mountains of Central Asia from 1990 to 2023, analyzed their spatiotemporal variations and evaluated their risk levels under current and future scenarios. The results show that glacial lakes are predominantly distributed in the Central and Western Tienshan, accounting for 75% of the total number in the Tienshan region. The number and area of glacial lakes increased by 148% (from 1837 to 4557) and 71.83% (from 119.73 to 205.73 km²) during 1990 to 2023, with moraine lake expansion predominating. In the Western Tienshan, the high or very high risk of GLOF is 3–4 times that of other areas. By the middle of the twenty-first century, GLOF risk will continue to increase, especially in the Western Tienshan. This study can provide scientific foundation for disaster mitigation in the downstream areas.

全球变暖加速了高山冰川的融化，导致冰川湖溃决洪水（GLOF）的风险增加。本文提取了1990年至2023年中亚天山冰川湖边界，分析了其时空变化，并评估了当前和未来情景下的风险水平。结果表明，冰川湖主要分布在天山中西部地区，占天山地区总数的75%。 1990年至2023年间，冰川湖数量和面积分别增长了148%（从1837年增加到4557个）和71.83%（从119.73公里 2 增加到205.73 km ² ），其中冰碛湖扩张为主。西天山地区GLOF的高风险或极高风险是其他地区的3-4倍。到21世纪中叶，GLOF风险将继续增加，特别是在西天山地区。该研究可为下游地区减灾提供科学依据。