In Part 1 of this series (Garcia et al., 2022), we introduced a novel individual-based model for the simulation of dispersal flight of adult spruce budworm (SBW: ) and demonstrated the results of that model under real weather conditions for two nights in July 2013 on which SBW mass dispersal events were observed by weather radar in southern Quebec, Canada. Here, following the selection of one uncertain parameter value using empirical measurements, we used those radar observations for the quantitative calibration of two uncertain flight model variables in our individual-based SBW–pyATM model, one that describes the conversion of moth wingbeat to flight speed, and a second that allows the moth to conserve energy during flight. For these experiments, we adapted a grid-based metric from meteorology that has previously been used to calibrate and validate precipitation forecasts by comparison with radar data. Through thousands of flight simulations for the night of 15–16 July 2013, examining each of these parameters separately and in conjunction, we arrived at optimal values that produce a spatiotemporal distribution of SBW moth dispersal that most closely matches the radar observations for that night. We then applied those calibrated parameter values to simulations of SBW dispersal on the night of 14–15 July 2013 and found a lesser but still reasonable resemblance to weather radar observations on that night as well. These two parameters have significant effects on the speed, altitude, and distance of dispersal, and are thus critical to the goal of estimating when and where SBW males and females land, with subsequent effects on reproductive behavior and the spatial redistribution of SBW populations over a dispersal season.

中文翻译：

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模拟天气驱动的云杉芽虫蛾 (Choristoneura fumiferana) 的长距离扩散。第 2 部分：使用雷达数据校准飞行模型


在本系列的第 1 部分（Garcia 等人，2022）中，我们介绍了一种新颖的基于个体的模型，用于模拟成年云杉芽虫的扩散飞行 (SBW: )，并演示了该模型在两个真实天气条件下的结果。 2013 年 7 月的几个夜晚，气象雷达在加拿大魁北克省南部观测到了 SBW 大规模扩散事件。在这里，在使用经验测量选择一个不确定参数值之后，我们使用这些雷达观测结果对基于个体的 SBW-pyATM 模型中的两个不确定飞行模型变量进行定量校准，该模型描述了飞蛾翅膀拍打到飞行速度的转换，第二个可以让飞蛾在飞行过程中保存能量。对于这些实验，我们采用了气象学中基于网格的指标，该指标以前用于通过与雷达数据进行比较来校准和验证降水预报。通过 2013 年 7 月 15 日至 16 日夜间的数千次飞行模拟，分别和结合检查每个参数，我们得出了最佳值，产生了 SBW 飞蛾扩散的时空分布，与当晚的雷达观测结果最接近。然后，我们将这些校准参数值应用于 2013 年 7 月 14 日至 15 日夜间 SBW 扩散的模拟，发现与当晚的气象雷达观测结果有较小但仍然合理的相似性。这两个参数对扩散的速度、高度和距离有显着影响，因此对于估计 SBW 雄性和雌性着陆的时间和地点的目标至关重要，从而对生殖行为和 SBW 种群在一段时间内的空间重新分布产生影响。分散季节。